Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
UPDATED: June 14, 2023
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Drama Series
Better Call Saul
Greg Lewis/AMC/Sony Pictures Television
Weekly Commentary: In 2017, the Television Academy ended its tradition of members voting with any limits in a given category. That meant if a member were voting in the supporting drama actor race of 2022, which had 436 candidates, they could check off every single one. In those six years, multiple nominations from the same shows dominated each ceremony. That period is now over. Members can only vote for the maximum number of nominees the category allows. With checkbox voting, this is sure to yield surprising inclusions and even more shocking exclusions from the race. Which ones those will be are still unknown, which makes this race even more challenging to predict.
Top-rated titles such as HBO’s “Succession” and “The White Lotus” are the only dramas I feel comfortable predicting. If I’m being honest, I’m not even cemented in my thoughts that the latter is guaranteed a nom since it’s moving from limited series (where it won in 2022).
The final season of AMC’s “Better Call Saul” has been beloved for its entire run; however, it’s also been fighting for recognition since it premiered in June 2022. A few voters have asked me, “Didn’t we already nominate it last year?”
The answer is yes, but only for the first half of the sixth and final season. This “Part 2” has six episodes that ran from July 11 until August 15. Will that matter?
Another question looming is whether HBO can tie the long-held NBC record of four drama series nominated from the same network. In addition to “Succession” and “White Lotus,” the cable/streamer now labeled “Max” is hoping for noms for its genre programs “House of the Dragon” and “The Last of Us,” along with some glimmer of hope for the now-canceled “Westworld.”
Keith Bernstein / Netflix
The Emmys also love their returning shows, especially those who have been crowned (no pun intended) previously. Netflix’s “The Crown” has been consistently projected to be among the eight shows recognized by pundits, despite viewers feeling “uninspired” by the season. Hulu’s “The Handmaid’s Tale” could also pop up after winning in 2017, but is also hoping to shake off the record for most losses for a show in a season (going 0 for 21) that it set in 2021.
But how many of the freshman series can make the eight slots? With the aforementioned “Dragon” and “Last of Us,” Disney+ has mounted a robust campaign for the “Star Wars” prequel series “Andor” while Westerns will seek representation with Paramount+’s “1923” and FX’s “The Old Man.”
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
- “1923” (Paramount+)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “The Old Man” (FX)
- “Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
- “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
- “The Boys” (Prime Video)
- “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)
- “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video)
- “Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story” (Netflix)
- “P Valley” (Starz)
- “Grey’s Anatomy” (ABC)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
** This official list and/or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: “Succession” (HBO) — Season 3 — Jesse Armstrong, Adam McKay, Will Ferrell, Frank Rich, Kevin Messick, Mark Mylod, Jane Tranter, Tony Roche, Scott Ferguson, Jon Brown, Lucy Prebble, Will Tracy (executive producers); Georgia Pritchett, Ted Cohen (co-executive producers); Susan Soon He Stanton, Dara Schnapper (supervising producers); Gabrielle Mahon (produced by); Francesca Gardiner (consulting producer)
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.