A cooling tower is seen at the nuclear-powered Vogtle Electric Generating Plant in Waynesboro, Georgia, U.S. August 13, 2024.
Megan Varner | Reuters
Odds that the U.S. and Iran reach a nuclear deal at some point in 2026 jumped on prediction markets platform Kalshi after an Axios report on Wednesday that the two countries were close to an agreement to end the war in the Middle East.
Kalshi traders now see a 58% chance that a deal is reached by 2027. They even see a 47% chance an agreement is reached by September.
Those levels are higher than before the Axios report, but still lower than the odds in the middle of April when there was more hope for a resolution to the conflict. At one point on April 17, odds that the two countries reach a nuclear deal by June were more than 70%.
The event contract resolves to “yes” if the U.S. announces, signs or accepts a deal from Iran regarding its nuclear program.
While the Axios report said the countries were close to an agreement to end the war, it added that the countries were only nearing a framework for negotiations around the nuclear issue. However, the deal to end the war could include a moratorium on Iranian nuclear enrichment.
Iran said it was reviewing the U.S. proposal on Wednesday, though neither country detailed any new developments on Thursday.
Traders on Polymarket were more optimistic about a deal before 2027, placing odds of 65% on the bet.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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