Republicans are playing defense deep in their own territory as voter anger over price hikes puts more House and Senate seats in play in the midterms.
New rounds of big spending, visits from Trump administration officials and private conversations among top GOP officials overseeing the battle for control of Congress reveal a party rushing to shore up red seats and states President Donald Trump won handily in 2024.
In the House, the fight has expanded far outside the few-dozen seats considered the most competitive as Republicans start to unleash their massive warchest: Since Aug. 1, more than $110 million in ad bookings have gone toward Republican-held districts so red that Trump won them by double digits.
In the Senate, Republicans are racing to shore up Ohio GOP Sen. Jon Husted as the Midwest struggles under the weight of Trump’s tariffs and high diesel prices. Trump and Vice President JD Vance are both expected to travel to the state before the midterms to boost Husted, according to four people familiar with the matter who were granted anonymity to discuss not-yet-public plans.
GOP leaders are also trying to keep a handle on contests in Iowa and Kansas — and they’ve quietly begun deprioritizing Georgia and even North Carolina, which a growing number of Republicans are privately bracing for Democrats to flip.
“We need to stop the contagion,” said one senior GOP official, who, like others, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the midterm landscape.
“The map is hilariously big right now,” said one national Republican pollster.
Since Aug. 1, nearly two-thirds of advertising funds in House races have been booked or spent in races with GOP incumbents, according to a POLITICO analysis of data from AdImpact, which tracks political advertising.
That includes nearly $18 million to embattled Rep. Max Miller in Ohio’s 7th District; $14.6 million to Texas’ 15th District where Monica De La Cruz faces a challenge from Tejano Singer Bobby Pulido; $9.6 million in Alaska where Rep. Nick Begich faces a challenge from independent Bill Hill; and millions more to other districts that Trump carried by double digits two years ago.
The GOP holds a massive cash advantage over Democrats — which, for now, means they can afford to spend more broadly. Republican groups are dividing up the spending deluge in the final weeks ahead of the midterms, with Trump’s MAGA Inc. affiliated super PAC spending heavily to shore up safer red seats and deter Democrats from pushing into those races.
“The voter enthusiasm [for Republican voters] is not where it needs to be but that’s where a money advantage can make a really big impact,” said Mark Bednar, a GOP strategist and former communications director for then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
Republicans have adjusted their Senate map expectations: They’re still bullish about Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire. They’re not as optimistic about North Carolina — which Trump won in 2024 — but they are hoping to force Democrats to spend more there.
Republicans are more concerned about Alaska and Texas. And their worries about Ohio have escalated amid soaring diesel prices and backlash to tariffs — challenges they’re also confronting in Texas, Iowa, Michigan and Kansas.
Already two battleground candidates have called for ends to the Iran war, pointing to the high prices: Iowa GOP Senate nominee Ashley Hinson, whose team has grown increasingly wary of the tight race and Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers. Both Hinson and Rogers use top Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio to guide their campaigns.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on Hinson’s and Rogers’ remarks.
Senior GOP operatives’ own internal polling shows Trump’s approval underwater in deep red states across the country. And an Iowa poll conducted last week by a Democratic-leaning pollster found Democrat Josh Turek with a one-point lead in the Senate race and Trump’s approval at 43 percent in the state he won by more than 13 percentage points in 2024, according to a copy of the poll obtained by POLITICO.
“As more races come online, it very clearly is a defensive map for Republicans across the country,” said a national GOP strategist working on multiple battleground races.
In Ohio, Republicans are optimistic that their attacks on former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s voting record are starting to break through, based on recent internal polling. But they’ve been conveying to outside groups for weeks that they need help reinforcing vulnerable incumbents like Husted. On Monday, the pro-crypto super PAC Fairshake said it planned to unleash $30 million against Brown, who was the top Democrat on the Banking Committee before losing reelection in 2024 — fueled in part by more than $40 million against him from Fairshake that year.
“The stakes go far beyond one Senate seat,” Amy Natoce, a Husted campaign spokesperson, said in a statement. “Control of the Senate will determine which agenda moves forward in Washington: Sherrod Brown’s out-of-touch socialist agenda, or Jon Husted’s agenda of lower taxes, a secure border, and an economy that rewards hard work.”
One Michigan Republican acknowledged the immense weight of the tariffs in races across the battleground state — including in the marquee Senate contest between Rogers and progressive Abdul El-Sayed, as well as across competitive House races.
“Everywhere we go, we are getting hammered on it,” the Michigan Republican said. “It’s crushing us.”
Even skeptical Republicans have been quietly checking in with their colleagues to see if the panic in redder territory is borne out in reality on the ground or just overblown polling. One GOP lawmaker who spoke to Hinson and her campaign team was somewhat surprised by their answers.
“It’s real,” that House Republican told POLITICO.
And POLITICO overheard a senior member of Kansas’ Republican party leadership complaining about their state’s tighter-than-expected race at the GOP’s midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month. GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, the person said, was in some trouble even as Republicans tried to dismiss the seriousness of his Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton.
Trump and Vance, meanwhile, continue to travel to states they won by double digits in 2024 to stump for Republican candidates, as Trump-aligned super PACs hammer the airwaves in far more red territory than blue.
Recently-formed super PACs aligned with MAGA Inc. — Trump’s main spending vehicle that holds more than $400 million — have spent in 42 House districts so far, 30 defensive and 12 offensive. On average, they are spending in areas that voted for Trump by 7.9 points in 2024, according to a POLITICO analysis.
The PACs are even spending in some districts Trump carried by 15 points as a way to shore up Republicans and deter Democratic advances, according to Republicans involved in the conversations.
Major Republican super PACs, including the Trump aligned-super PACs and party-linked groups, have spent in more than two dozen GOP-held seats where Trump won by at least 5 points in 2024.
“Republicans aren’t taking anything for granted this cycle and will deploy whatever resources necessary to protect our majorities and prevent Democrats from taking control,” RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said in a statement.
The NRSC argued that “Democrats lack quality candidates and a clear path to victory,” so the party is “feigning optimism” and looking to candidates who have lost before, including Brown, “to somehow deliver [a] majority.” The NRCC said their opposition is “too broke to fight back.”
The geography of the Senate map still favors the GOP this cycle: Democrats have to defend all of their seats, while flipping four Republican-held ones, to take control of the upper chamber.
Republicans believe they have a real shot at flipping New Hampshire, and public polling shows Minnesota’s Senate race closer than expected, forcing Democrats to pay some minor attention to a state Kamala Harris won in 2024.
And Republicans are still hopeful that their mid-decade gerrymandering push could still give them a structural advantage as they fight to defend the House. Republicans won the redistricting war that erupted last summer and will likely net at least six seats from it.
But as economic concerns continue to dominate — with little relief in sight — Democrats are growing increasingly bullish.
“You know, I look at places like Kansas where I never thought we’d have a chance, or South Carolina or even Mississippi, these places are longshots, but they look like they’re competitive,” Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) said.
For their part, senior Republicans have been working the problem from two ends, trying to gently persuade Trump in private conversations to back off some of his recent policy moves and wind down the war in Iran — while also organizing a wave of cash reinforcements across the growing map to try to stem the bleeding.
GOP lawmakers pressed Trump officials at their Dallas convention and since then to take emergency actions around fuel prices and refinery capacity. A band of House Republicans led an unsuccessful attempt to vote on a federal gas tax suspension until after Election Day. And, over the weekend, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) posted several direct appeals to Trump, asking why he hasn’t put an embargo on diesel exports.
But many are convinced the bleeding won’t stop until voters get some relief at the pump.
“The question is: How much longer can we go?” one senior House Republican said.