The 2026 midterm election is shaping up to be historic. Even Republicans admit they are facing losses, and their best-case scenario for Election Day would be to lose only control of the House of Representatives.
Trump and his party had hoped for a replay of the 2022 midterm, when Democrats narrowly lost the House but gained a Senate seat.
PoliticusUSA is 100% independent news and opinion. Please support our work by becoming a subscriber.
The initial comparison baseline was Trump’s first midterm election in 2018, when Democrats gained 41 House seats, but Republicans gained 2 Senate seats.
As Trump has made the political climate worse for Republicans throughout the year, the combination of voter rage, a worsening economy, high gas prices, inflation, and a war in Iran has opened up the entire map for Democrats.
Democratic Senate candidates are running close in deep red states like Texas, Florida, and Kansas, with the latest addition to the list of endangered Republican Senate seats being in South Carolina.
Most comparisons for 2026 point to 2006, which matters because Republicans were wiped out in 2006, losing control of the House, the Senate, a majority of governorships, and state legislatures.
The situation has become so dire that even Republican operatives are saying that the bottom has fallen out for the party.
A sign that Republicans are hitting bottom is what is happening in South Carolina.