Transportation programs built around single-carrier lanes, fixed modes and rigid procurement cycles are facing their costliest stress test in years, according to a new freight intelligence report examining how shippers can protect service and cost when market conditions shift.
The recent SONAR Sitrep report, arrives as key market indicators signal carrier leverage at multi-year highs. The SONAR Truckload Rejection Index climbed to 17.64% on June 21, 2026 –its highest level since March 2022– and currently sits near 16%.
The National Truckload Index reached an all-time high of $3.78 per mile on June 28, while the spot-to-contract spread widened to approximately $0.51 per mile, the highest since 2021.
Intermodal savings hit record levels
Modal conversion presents one of the clearest opportunities for cost relief in the current environment. The Intermodal Contract Savings Index stands at 31.52%, with a year-to-date average of 23.78% –more than double prior-year same-week levels.
As truckload contract rates have repriced upward, intermodal contract pricing has not kept pace. This is widening the savings available on comparable lanes to the largest differential in the index’s recent history.
For shippers with transit-tolerant, rail-eligible freight, the spread signals that lane-level conversion reviews warrant attention.
Additional modal conversion options include shifting underweight truckload moves to LTL shipments and moving lanes between spot and contract channels based on spread conditions.
With the spot-to-contract spread now positive after running negative through most of 2022-2025, lanes heavily reliant on spot markets have become candidates for contract conversion through targeted mini-bids.
Tariff frontloading exposes geographic concentration
Geographic constraints compounded market pressure during the first half of 2026.
With a temporary tariff set to expire July 24, importers pulled volume forward into a compressed window, driving a surge of containerized freight through U.S. gateways concentrated on the West Coast.
Shippers dependent on a single gateway absorbed the full impact of both the surge and subsequent pullback. Those with qualified alternatives had more options to smooth timing and inland-capacity impacts.
Six dimensions of transportation optionality
The report organizes transportation flexibility into six practical dimensions:
-
Carrier Optionality involves maintaining multiple qualified carriers on critical lanes with a tested tender waterfall, rather than treating every rejection as an emergency spot-market event.
-
Modal Optionality preserves the ability to shift freight among truckload, intermodal and LTL based on cost, service and capacity requirements.
-
Geographic Optionality qualifies alternate origins, destinations, ports, gateways or distribution points when one market becomes constrained.
-
Facility Optionality enables flexible appointment windows, drop-trailer capability, alternate shipping hours and overflow locations to preserve carrier access.
-
Procurement Optionality moves beyond a single annual bid decision to include trigger-based lane reviews, extension and reopener options, and preapproved recovery channels.
-
Network Optionality coordinates the other five dimensions into an executable response with documented decision sequences, standing owners and tested playbooks.