2023 Emmys Lead Actress Drama Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Max Doyle for Variety

Weekly Commentary (Updated: Aug. 3, 2023): On “Succession,” Sarah Snook shined in every part, becoming the season’s clear standout as Shiv, the political fixer and youngest Roy child of the media empire. From her heartbreaking “Daddy?” over the phone during the masterful “Connor’s Wedding” episode to this week’s “Kill List,” which showcases her fiery and calculated exchange with Lukas Mattson — Snook fired on all cylinders. She is way overdue for a moment on the Emmy stage.

In HBO’s dystopian video game adaptation, Ellie awakens in a cage where bad things happen that will change her forever in the episode titled “When We Are in Need.” It’s where Bella Ramsey shows off their acting chops and features some of the best acting moments of the inaugural season, and the performer has put it forward as their acting submission. As the second youngest nominee in the category’s history, why not add the first openly nonbinary winner to their record-breaking year?

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.

The aftermath of the iconic “Qui” episode, one of the six selected by Showtime in the drama series category, is what New Zealand’s Melanie Lynskey has opted to put forth in hopes of winning her first major Emmy. With a Nirvana needle drop and a chilling “Oh, Bruce!” delivery from the actor before killing a goat, this is a smart pick for a character dealing with losing a child. A double nominee, along with her work in “The Last of Us” as guest drama actress, many may not want to see her go home empty-handed.

Irish actor and writer Sharon Horgan picked up double mentions for writing and her performance as Eva Garvey, the eldest sister of the Garvey family. The surprise inclusions in both races could hint at more shocks coming her way for the Apple TV+ drama. It could be a win here.

Keri Russell is a four-time Emmy Award nominee and managed to kick out big names to land her deserved nod for the Netflix political thriller. After six seasons on FX’s “The Americans,” Russell proves there’s still much love and respect for a star who deploys impeccable skill. The win will have to wait for future iterations.

Elisabeth Moss has leaned into every nook and cranny of the Hulu series as an actor, producer and director, the sole survivor of the once-winning drama series. However, with little Emmy love this year and setting the record for most losses in a single year in 2021, the acclaimed actress is likely just happy to be here.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.

And the Nominees Are:

Sarah Snook — “Succession” (HBO)
Episode Submission: “Tailgate Party”
Melanie Lynskey — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Episode Submission: “Burial”
Sharon Horgan — “Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
Episode Submission: “Saving Grace”
Keri Russell — “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Episode Submission: “Lambs in the Dark”
Bella Ramsey — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
Episode Submission: “When We Are in Need”
Elisabeth Moss — “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
Episode Submission: “Safe”

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**

Hilary Swank — “Alaska Daily” (ABC)
Alexandra Daddario — “Anne Rice’s Mayfair Witches” (AMC)
Sharon Horgan — “Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
Jessica Ann Collins — “Echo 3” (Apple TV+)
Krys Marshall — “For All Mankind” (Apple TV+)
Eva Green — “Liaison” (Apple TV+)
Melissa George — “Mosquito Coast” (Apple TV+)
Sylvia Hoeks — “See” (Apple TV+)
Lauren Ambrose — “Servant” (Apple TV+)
Gugu Mbatha-Raw — “Surface” (Apple TV+)
Octavia Spencer — “Truth Be Told” (Apple TV+)
Simone Missick — “All Rise” (CBS)
Queen Latifah — “The Equalizer” (CBS)
Katherine McNamara — “Walker: Independence” (The CW)
Katie Sackhoff — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
Angela Bassett — “9-1-1” (Fox)
Roselyn Sánchez — “Fantasy Island” (Fox)
Neicy Nash-Betts — “The Rookie: Feds” (Fox)
Railey Gilliland — “High School” (Freevee)
Seazynn Gilliand — “High School” (Freevee)
Mallori Johnson — “Kindred” (FX)
Nancy Travis — “Ride” (Hallmark)
Anne Marie Raneri — “Welcome to Hope” (Hallmark)
Emma D’Arcy — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)
Dafne Keen — “His Dark Materials” (HBO)
Marisa Abela — “Industry” (HBO)
Myha’la Herrold — “Industry” (HBO)
Bella Ramsey — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
Sarah Snook — “Succession” (HBO)
Evan Rachel Wood — “Westworld” (HBO)
Elisabeth Moss — “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
Melissa Roxburgh — “Manifest” (Netflix)
Caitlin Bassett — “Quantum Leap” (NBC)
Emily Beecham — “1899” (Netflix)
Imelda Staunton — “The Crown” (Netflix)
Keri Russell — “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Katherine Heigl — “Firefly Lane” (Netflix)
Brianne Howey — “Ginny & Georgia” (Netflix)
Madelyn Cline — “Outer Banks” (Netflix)
India Amarteifio — “Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story” (Netflix)
Charlotte Ritchie — “You” (Netflix)
Dawn-Lyen Gardner — “Queen Sugar” (OWN)
Helen Mirren — “1923” (Paramount+)
Katja Herbers — “Evil” (Paramount+)
Amanda Peet — “Fatal Attraction” (Paramount+)
Lizzy Caplan — “Fatal Attraction” (Paramount+)
Christine Baranski — “The Good Fight” (Paramount+)
Luciane Buchanan — “The Night Agent” (Netflix)
Lizzy Caplan — “Fatal Attraction” (Paramount+)
Meta Golding — “Rabbit Hole” (Paramount+)
Sonequa Martin-Green — “Star Trek: Discovery” (Paramount+)
Sarah Michelle Gellar — “Wolf Pack” (Paramount+)
Kelly Reilly — “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)
Karen Fukuhara — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
Ein Moriarty — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
Priyanka Chopra Jonas — “Citadel” (Prime Video)
Jerrika Hinton — “Hunters” (Prime Video)
Chloë Grace Moretz — “The Peripheral” (Prime Video)
Toni Collette — “The Power” (Prime Video)
Deborah Ayorinde — “Riches” (Prime Video)
Constance Wu — “The Terminal List” (Prime Video)
Jennifer Beals — “The L Word: Generation Q” (Showtime)
Leisha Hailey — “The L Word: Generation Q” (Showtime)
Kate Moennig — “The L Word: Generation Q” (Showtime)
Hope Davis — “Your Honor” (Showtime)
Tawny Cypress — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Juliette Lewis — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Melanie Lynskey — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Sophie Nélisse — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Alice Englert — “Dangerous Liaisons” (Starz)
Brandee Evans — “P Valley” (Starz)
Patina Miller — “Power Book III: Raising Kanan” (Starz)
Samantha Morton — “The Serpent Queen” (Starz)

** This official list and category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.

2022 category winner: Zendaya as Ruby “Rue” Bennett in “Euphoria” (HBO) — Season 2 (Submission: “Stand Still Like the Hummingbird”)

Emmy Awards Predictions Categories

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.

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