Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Courtesy of HBO
Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 21, 2023): Brett Goldstein may have won this category back-to-back for his turn as Roy Kent in Apple’s “Ted Lasso,” but his co-star Phil Dunster, who plays the young Jamie Tartt, made quite the impression this season. With Goldstein opting to submit the episode “La Locker Room Aux Follies” and Dunster going with “Mom City,” the latter may have chosen the better episode to push him over the finish line.
However, the unexpected spoiler in this race is the incredible James Marsden, who nabbed his first career Emmy nom for Amazon Freevee’s “Jury Duty.” With Marsden putting up the fifth episode of the inaugural season, “Ineffective Assistance,” and a legion of respect from his fellow acting peers, he could be the dark horse that many aren’t expecting to have his name called.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
There’s also Tyler James Williams, who won the Golden Globe, who would be a sign of strength for “Abbott Elementary” taking home comedy series if he could snag his first statuette. Noteworthy, the Globes haven’t matched a winner for supporting actor (TV) since 2017 with Alexander Skarsgård for “Big Little Lies.” Despite the fact his work on “Abbott” is more than worthy of acclaim given the execution of his role in the sophomore season, he may be somewhat of a “red herring” like former presumed “frontrunners” who came up short at the Emmys such as Chris Colfer (“Glee”) or O Yeong su (“Squid Game”). We should also note the Globes split their TV supporting categories last year, with the other winner Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”).
Henry Winkler won his overdue Emmy for the first season of “Barry,” and a second isn’t out of the question, although his co-star Anthony Carrigan, who hasn’t won yet, will indeed receive votes for his last outing as NoHo Hank.
And then there’s Ebon Moss-Bachrach, who is coming off the sophomore season of “The Bear” and was a huge standout. I wonder, even though his Emmy nom is for the inaugural year if that’s helping him climb the ranks this year? Could be.
The rankings for the category are below.
The final Emmy voting rounds open on Aug. 17 at 9 a.m. PT and close on Aug. 28 at 10 p.m. PST. The 75th Emmy Awards are scheduled to air on Monday, Jan. 15, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET/ 5 p.m. PT. The Creative Arts ceremony will occur on Saturday, Jan. 6, and Sunday, Jan. 7. An edited version will air on FXX on Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET. All events will take place at the Peacock Theater at LA Live.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
And the Nominees Are:
- James Marsden — “Jury Duty” (Freevee)
Episode submission: “Ineffective Assistance” - Phil Dunster — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Episode submission: “Mom City” - Brett Goldstein — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Episode submission: “La Locker Room Aux Follies” - Henry Winkler — “Barry” (HBO)
Episode submission: “bestest place on earth” - Ebon Moss-Bachrach — “The Bear” (FX)
Episode submission: “Ceres” - Tyler James Williams — “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Episode submission: “Educator of the Year” - Anthony Carrigan — “Barry” (HBO)
Episode submission: “it takes a psycho”
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) — Season 2
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between Jun. 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.