Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Gary Oldman in “Slow Horses”
Apple TV
Primetime Emmys Predictions Commentary All Categories (Updated: May 21, 2026): Emmy nomination voting is still a ways away. But that doesn’t mean any show or performer is out of the race, nor does it mean an early frontrunner can’t start to lose momentum.
Among the biggest developments this week are the first official ranked-chart debuts for the four guest acting categories, along with a closer look at the five picture editing races below. Variety is now predicting in 47 of the more than 100 Emmy categories.
“Pluribus,” from Vince Gilligan, climbs to the top spot for the first time this season, followed closely by HBO Max’s acclaimed medical drama “The Pitt.” In comedy, the race is still “Hacks’” to lose as it heads into what is expected to be its final season. The strongest challengers at the moment appear to be David E. Kelley’s freshman dramedy “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” and Bill Lawrence’s “Shrinking,” both from Apple TV.
The limited series and anthology field remains the most wide open. “Beef” continues to hold the top spot, while HBO Max’s “Half Man” slips a few slots following a more mixed reception. Still, don’t count out the Richard Gadd series just yet, especially as audiences react to the final three episodes, which may ultimately prove to be the strongest stretch of the season. At the same time, Steven Conrad’s “DTF St. Louis” could emerge as a viable contender for HBO if it builds enough momentum and expands its win potential across acting, directing and writing.
Upcoming FYC events this week include “Star Wars: Visions” Volume 3 and “Stranger Things” on May 21, followed by “Malcolm in the Middle: ‘Life’s Still Unfair,’” “Nobody Wants This” and “Wednesday” on May 22.
Upcoming key dates: The eligibility window ends on May 31. Nomination voting runs June 11-22, with nominations announced July 8. Final-round voting will take place Aug. 17-26 ahead of the Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala on Sept. 5-6. The Primetime Emmy Awards will air Sept. 14 on NBC.
Note: All official category placements in these predictions have yet to be confirmed.
Top 3 projected nomination leaders (series): “The Pitt” and “Shrinking” (13); “Hacks” (11); “Beef” and “Pluribus” (10)
Top 3 projected nomination leaders (networks): Netflix (64); HBO Max (59); Apple TV (43)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Drama Series
Image Credit: Apple TV “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
“Paradise” (Hulu)
“The Pitt” (HBO Max)
“Pluribus” (Apple TV) ***
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
“Stranger Things” (Netflix)
“Task” (HBO Max)
“The Testaments” (Hulu)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Comedy Series
Image Credit: ABC “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
“Hacks” (HBO Max) ***
“Jury Duty: Company Retreat” (Prime Video)
“Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
“Rooster” (HBO Max)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Limited or Anthology Series
Image Credit: Netflix “Beef” (Netflix) ***
“Black Rabbit” (Netflix)
“DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
“Lord of the Flies” (Netflix)
“Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Outstanding Movie
Image Credit: ©Amazon/Courtesy Everett Collection “Deep Cover” (Prime Video)
“Mike and Nick & Nick and Alice” (Hulu)
“Miss You, Love You” (HBO Max)
“Remarkably Bright Creatures” (Netflix) ***
“People We Meet on Vacation” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Lead Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Paramount+ Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
Mark Ruffalo, “Task” (HBO Max)
Billy Bob Thornton, “Landman” (Paramount+)
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Lead Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: HBO Max Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Steve Carell, “Rooster” (HBO Max)
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Jason Segel, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Lead Actor (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Netflix Jason Bateman, “Black Rabbit” (Netflix)
Jamie Bell, “Half Man” (HBO Max)
Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
Oscar Isaac, “Beef” (Netflix) ***
Matthew Rhys, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Lead Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: HBO Max Kathy Bates, “Matlock” (CBS)
Michelle Pfeiffer, “The Madison” (Paramount+)
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” (Apple TV) ***
Zendaya, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Lead Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: Peacock Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Elle Fanning, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback” (HBO Max)
Keke Palmer, “The ‘Burbs” (Peacock)
Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Lead Actress (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sarah Enticknap/PEACOCK Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Carey Mulligan, “Beef” (Netflix) ***
Sarah Pidgeon, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
Kerry Washington, “Imperfect Women” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Supporting Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: HBO Max Patrick Ball, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV)
Ato Essandoh, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Shawn Hatosy, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
Tom Pelphrey, “Task” (HBO Max)
Kurt Russell, “The Madison” (Paramount+)
Carlos-Manuel Vesga, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Supporting Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: NBC Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons” (Netflix)
Paul W. Downs, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Harrison Ford, “Shrinking” (Apple TV) ***
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear” (FX)
Nick Offerman, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
Michael Urie, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Supporting Actor (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: HBO Max Jonathan Banks, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Jason Bateman, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
Richard Gadd, “Half Man” (HBO Max)
David Harbour, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max) ***
Charles Melton, “Beef” (Netflix)
Alessandro Nivola, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Supporting Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: Hulu Marisa Abela, “Industry” (HBO Max)
Isa Briones, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Allison Janney, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
Sepideh Moafi, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Karolina Wydra, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Supporting Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: NBC Erika Alexander, “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Laurie Metcalf, “Big Mistakes” (Netflix)
Michelle Pfeiffer, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV) ***
Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Jessica Williams, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Supporting Actress (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Netflix Linda Cardellini, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
Grace Gummer, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
Laurie Metcalf, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
Cailee Spaeny, “Beef” (Netflix) ***
Naomi Watts, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Beef” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Guest Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Netflix Eric Dane, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)
Colman Domingo, “Euphoria” (HBO Max) ***
Jeff Kober, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Bill Pullman, “The Boroughs” (Netflix)
Samba Schutte, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
Bradley Whitford, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Guest Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Disney/Steve Wilkie Tal Anderson, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Yvette Nicole Brown, “Matlock” (CBS)
Elisabeth Moss, “The Testaments” (Hulu)
Miriam Shor, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
Shailene Woodley, “Paradise” (Hulu) ***
Merritt Wever, “The Gilded Age” (HBO Max)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Guest Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: Apple TV Jon Bernthal, “The Bear” (FX)
Jeff Daniels, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Tony Goldwyn, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Brett Goldstein, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Michael J. Fox, “Shrinking” (Apple TV) ***
Rob Reiner, “The Bear” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Guest Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: FX Candice Bergen, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Jamie Lee Curtis, “The Bear” (FX) ***
Danielle Deadwyler, “The Bear” (FX)
Laurie Metcalf, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Kaitlin Olson, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Amy Poehler, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Directing (Drama)
Image Credit: Netflix “The Diplomat” (Netflix) — Alex Graves, “Schrodinger’s Wife”
“Euphoria” (HBO Max) — Sam Levinson, “In God We Trust”
“Paradise” (Hulu) — Ken Olin, “A Holy Change”
“The Pitt” (HBO Max) — John Wells, “9:00 P.M.”
“Pluribus” (Apple TV) — Vince Gilligan, “We Is Us” ***
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV) — Saul Metzstein, “Scars”
“Stranger Things” (Netflix) — The Duffer Brothers, “Chapter Eight: The Rightside Up”Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Directing (Comedy)
Image Credit: Apple TV “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — Randall Einhorn, “Miami”
“Hacks” (HBO Max) — Lucia Aniello, “TBD Series Finale” ***
“Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat” (Prime Video) — Jake Szymanski, “Mergers & Acquisitions”
“Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV) — Dearbhla Walsh, “Flamingoes”
“The Ms. Pat Show” (BET) — Mary Lou Belli, “Killin’ and Dyin’”
“Rooster” (HBO Max) — Jonathan Krisel, “Release the Brown Fat”
“Shrinking” (Apple TV) — Randall Keenan Winston, “And That’s Our Time”Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Directing (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Netflix “Beef” (Netflix) — Lee Sung Jin,”Oh, the Comfort, the Inexpressible Comfort” ***
“Black Rabbit” (Netflix) — Jason Bateman, “The Black Rabbits”
“Death by Lightning” (Netflix) — Matt Ross, “Series”
“DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max) — Steven Conrad, “Series”
“Half Man” (HBO Max) — Alexandra Brodski, “TBD Episode 1”
“Lord of the Flies” (Netflix) — Marc Munden, “Series”Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Writing (Drama)
Image Credit: AMC “The Audacity” (AMC) — “Best of All Possible Worlds” by Jonathan Glatzer
“The Diplomat” (Netflix) — “Schrodinger’s Wife” by Debora Cahn
“Industry” (HBO Max) — “Both, And” by Mickey Down and Konrad Kay
“Paradise” (Hulu) — “Exodus” by John Hoberg and Seena Haddad
“The Pitt” (HBO Max) — “9:00 P.M.” by R. Scott Gemmill
“Pluribus” (Apple TV) — “We Is Us” by Vince Gilligan ***
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV) — “Scars” by Will SmithEmmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Writing (Comedy)
Image Credit: Apple TV “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — “Team Building” by Quinta Brunson
“The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC) — “Pilot” by Robert Carlock and Sam Means
“Hacks” (HBO Max) — “TBD Series Finale” by Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs and Jen Statsky
“Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat” (Prime Video) — “Onboarding” by Anthony King
“The Lowdown” (FX) — “Pilot” by Sterlin Harjo
“Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV) — “Lock and Loaded” by Eva Anderson and David E. Kelley
“Shrinking” (Apple TV) — “And That’s Our Time” by Bill Lawrence, Brett Goldstein and Neil Goldman ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Writing (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Netflix “Beef” (Netflix) — “Oh, the Comfort, the Inexpressible Comfort” by Lee Sung Jin & Madeleine Pron
“Black Rabbit” (Netflix) — “The Cyclone” by Zach Baylin and Kate Susman
“DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max) — Series by Steven Conrad ***
“Half Man” (HBO Max) — Series by Richard Gadd
“Lord of the Flies” (Netflix) — Series by Jack ThorneEmmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Variety Series
Image Credit: CBS “The Daily Show” (Comedy Central) ***
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC) ***
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO Max) ***
“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Casting (Drama)
Image Credit: Steffan Hill “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” (HBO Max)
“Paradise” (Hulu)
“The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
“Pluribus” (Apple TV)
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Casting (Comedy)
Image Credit: Prime Video “Hacks” (HBO Max)
“Jury Duty: Company Retreat” (Prime Video)
“The Lowdown” (FX)
“Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
“Rooster” (HBO Max)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Casting (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: ©FX Networks/Courtesy Everett Collection “Beef” (Netflix)
“Half Man” (HBO Max)
“Lord of the Flies” (Netflix) ***
“Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
“Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Competition Program
Image Credit: CBS “The Amazing Race” (CBS)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
“Survivor” (CBS) ***
“Top Chef” (Bravo)
“The Traitors” (Peacock)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Game Show
Image Credit: Sony Pictures Television “Celebrity Family Feud” (Syndicated)
“Game Changer” (Dropout)
“Jeopardy” (Syndicated) ***
“The Price is Right” (Syndicated)
“Wheel of Fortune” (Syndicated)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Host for Reality/Competition Program
Image Credit: Courtesy of Peacock RuPaul Charles, “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
Alan Cumming, “The Traitors” (Peacock)
Kristen Kish, “Top Chef” (Bravo)
Padma Lakshmi, “America’s Culinary Cup” (CBS)
Jeff Probst, “Survivor” (CBS) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Structured Reality Program
Image Credit: Netflix “Antiques Roadshow” (PBS)
“Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives” (Food Network)
“Love is Blind” (Netflix)
“Queer Eye” (Netflix) ***
“Shark Tank” (ABC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Unstructured Reality Program
Image Credit: Netflix “Funny AF with Kevin Hart” (Netflix)
“Love is Blind” (Netflix)
“Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix) ***
“Queer Eye” (Netflix)
“Welcome to Wrexham” (FX) -
Animated Program
Image Credit: Netflix “Bob’s Burgers” (Fox)
“King of the Hill” (Hulu)
“Long Story Short” (Netflix)
“Rick and Morty” (Adult Swim)
“The Simpsons” (Fox) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Documentary (Series)
Image Credit: Melinda Sue Gordon “Mr. Scorsese” (Apple TV) ***
“Rafa” (Netflix)
“Sean Combs: The Reckoning” (Netflix)
“Taylor Swift: The End of an Era” (Disney+)
“The Yogurt Shop Murders” (HBO Max)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Documentary (Special)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Prime “John Candy: I Like Me” (Prime Video) ***
“Marty, Life is Short” (Netflix)
“Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man” (HBO Max)
“My Mom Jayne” (HBO Max)
“Ocean with David Attenborough” (National Geographic)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Hosted Nonfiction Series/Special
Image Credit: Netflix “The Dinosaurs” (Netflix)
“Finding Your Roots with Henry Louis Gates Jr.” (PBS)
“My Next Guest with David Letterman and Adam Sandler” (Netflix)
“The Reluctant Traveler with Eugene Levy” (Apple TV) ***
“Tucci in Italy” (National Geographic)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Variety Special (Live)
Image Credit: Getty Images “The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny” (Roc Nation) ***
“BTS The Comeback Live: Arirang” (Netflix)
“The Oscars” (ABC)
“The 68th Grammy Awards” (Paramount+)
“Skyscraper Live” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)
Image Credit: Netflix “Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable” (Netflix)
“Kevin Hart: Acting My Age” (Netflix)
“Marc Maron: Panicked” (HBO Max)
“Nikki Glaser: Good Girl” (Hulu) ***
“2025 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony” (ABC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Picture Editing (Drama)
Image Credit: Lorenzo Sisti “Fallout” (Prime Video)
“Paradise” (Hulu)
“The Pitt” (HBO Max)
“Pluribus” (Apple TV) ***
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
“Stranger Things” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Picture Editing (Comedy)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Apple “Hacks” (HBO Max) ***
“Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat” (Prime Video)
“Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV)
“Widow’s Bay” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Picture Editing (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Netflix “Beef” (Netflix)
“DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max) ***
“His and Hers” (Netflix)
“Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
“Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Picture Editing (Nonfiction)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix “aka Charlie Sheen” (Netflix)
“The American Revolution” (PBS)
“John Candy: I Like Me” (Prime Video)
“Mr. Scorsese” (Apple TV) ***
“My Mom Jayne” (HBO Max)
“Sean Combs: The Reckoning” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Picture Editing (Structured Reality/Competition)
Image Credit: Getty “The Amazing Race” (CBS)
“Queer Eye“
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
“Survivor” (CBS) ***
“The Traitors” (Peacock)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Picture Editing (Unstructured)
“Below Deck Down Under” (Bravo)
“Deadliest Catch” (Discovery)
“Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked” (MTV)
“Welcome to Wrexham” (FX) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon