On the sidelines of the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Islamabad, Pakistan and China signed 13 agreements, covering a range of sectors including security, livelihood, education, agriculture, human resources development, and science and technology. However, the highlight of the meeting was the virtual inauguration by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his Chinese counterpart Li Qiang of the New Gwadar International Airport.
Built at a cost of $230 million, the airport is one of the projects under the $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It extends over an area of 17 square kilometers and is touted to be Pakistan’s second largest airport, designed to accommodate some of the world’s largest aircraft, including the ATR 72, Airbus A-300), Boeing 737, and Boeing 747. The airport is expected to create around 3,000 jobs.
However, the airport’s location in the sparsely populated province of Balochistan, particularly in Gwadar district, which has a population of just over 100,000, raises several questions regarding the airport’s ability to attract passengers and cargo traffic. Without sufficient demand, the airport risks becoming another underutilized airport similar to the Chinese-funded Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport in Sri Lanka. Given these concerns, it is essential to first assess how this project fits into the broader CPEC.
The primary idea behind constructing the airport was to boost connectivity and facilitate the movement of cargo to and from Gwadar, particularly its seaport. It was also aimed to support the flow of people as business activity increases. By functioning as a hub for both commercial flights and cargo jets, the airport is expected to attract potential investment and stimulate commercial growth in Gwadar Port, which is the core of the CPEC initiative. It is also expected to facilitate connections with markets in China, South Asia and the Middle East. This ties directly into CPEC’s larger vision of turning Gwadar into a key trade and transport hub.
While this vision may sound promising, there is skepticism about the practicality and viability of such a large-scale airport in a relatively isolated region.
Karachi and Quetta, the nearest major cities, are located over 600 and 700 kilometers away, respectively, raising the question about how effectively the airport can serve its broader objective, particularly without improved connections to urban centers.
A major challenge is the lack of railroad connectivity. Around the world, rail networks are used for the movement of cargo. Rail transport is generally more efficient in terms of fuel consumption and costs, and allows transportation of large volumes of goods without delays and congestion often experienced on highways.
However, Gwadar currently relies on a single major highway to Karachi, and another to Quetta through Turbat, both of which are heavily burdened by passenger and freight traffic, frequently exceeding their capacity. To fully realize the airport’s intended vision under CPEC, it is necessary to establish a multimodal transport network with rail connections.
While infrastructure may be developed over time to address emerging needs, the more formidable and pressing challenge is that of security. Balochistan has long faced unrest with complex tensions of insurgency and political grievances.
Earlier this month, at least 10 people, including two Chinese engineers, were killed in Karachi. Such attacks are part of a troubling trend of CPEC and other projects and workers being targeted. In fact, almost 100 Chinese nationals have lost their lives in Pakistan in terror attacks since CPEC was launched.
Although both China and Pakistan have repeatedly committed to enhancing security measures for Chinese personnel, and projects — they reiterated this pledge during the recent SCO meeting as well — questions remain about how these commitments can be implemented on the ground. The ongoing insurgency in Balochistan, along with unresolved discontent over local resource management, has persisted. Unaddressed for the past two decades, this discontent has only escalated tensions, complicating the situation and jeopardizing the security and viability of ongoing projects.
Despite this, China remains invested in Gwadar, given its strategic location and its long-term potential. Yet, the ability to attract and retain more investment for infrastructure projects like rail networks, and connecting with markets outside Pakistan for the seaport and the new airport, depends heavily on addressing security concerns, especially as China is already shrinking the scope and scale of BRI through its new “Small and Beautiful” strategy.
For the first time in the last three decades, China is experiencing a net outflow of foreign direct investment. Amid a persistent real-estate crisis, stalled post-pandemic economic recovery, rising debt, and other economic pressures, the public sector is now struggling to manage large infrastructure projects. As a result, Beijing may consider selecting strategically where to invest in order to ensure greater returns and stability.
As China reassesses its investment strategies and Pakistan struggles with persistent security challenges, the future of the New Gwadar International Airport remains uncertain. Whether it will support economic growth, or succumb to the same fate as many other grand initiatives that were left underutilized, potentially earning the label of “white elephant,” remains to be seen.