An exterior view of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) headquarters in Washington.
Jonathan Ernst | Reuters
Prediction markets traders are confident the Securities and Exchange Commission will change its rules governing how often companies must report financial statements to shareholders, to semiannually from quarterly, following a formal proposal by regulators on Tuesday.
Opinion is more divided, however, as to when it will happen.
After the proposal was disclosed Tuesday, odds on the Kalshi prediction market that regulations will be eased by April 2027 surged to 73% from 46%.
Chances of faster approval, by next Jan. 1, initially jumped to 67%, fell to about 50-50 and recently stood at about 57% odds.
Approval by January 2027 would mark an unusually quick turnaround in the SEC’s rulemaking process.
Before final commission debate, the proposal is subject to a 60-day public comment period. After that, commissioners may alter the proposal’s structure based on public feedback, but the comment period only starts once the proposed rule is posted to the Federal Register.
A 2023 analysis by law firm Wilson Sonsini showed that the Register can take between a few days and up to a month to post the proposed rule, with longer timelines usually coming when a proposal is over 100 pages. The proposed SEC rule on semiannual reporting comes to 279 pages.
According to the SEC’s index of rulemaking activity, the recent timeline between proposed rules and their final adoption is typically at least a year, and in some cases, years.
On Polymarket, traders are giving a 51% chance that the SEC ends mandatory quarterly reporting in 2026.
In other words, traders are making a big bet that the commission will work faster than its history suggests in changing the requirements for financial reporting by companies.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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