Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow is looking at a $47 million to $65 million opening, which would be a disaster for a superhero tentpole that costs $175 million to produce and at least another $75 million to promote.
That puts break-even at right around $500 million global, and if you open to $65 million domestic, that ain’t happening.
Obviously, the movie’s star, Milly Alcock-Zegler is not helping to create a necessary and vast reservoir of audience goodwill as she runs around the entertainment media playing the victim and ridiculing Christian dads.
There’s a bigger story here, though…
Supergirl needs to do more than make a little money. It needs to justify and breathe life into the reboot of the DC superhero franchise.
Supergirl is the second title to arrive from the rebooted DC Studios, which is run by writer-director James Gunn. The first title was 2025’s Superman, and despite the desperate spin and a sequel already in production, Superman did not do all that well at the box office. A $619 million global take when the production and promotion budget easily exceeded $300 million is barely breaking even.
Additionally, James Gunn’s Superman took no real hold in our cultural imagination. It’s just kind of … there.
The next test for Gunn’s vision of the DC Studios Universe is Supergirl, and if it bombs, as is projected here, Gunn’s position overseeing this reboot of some of America’s most popular superheroes could end pretty quickly, especially when Paramount takes over the studio in the upcoming merger.
From where I sit, besides making a mediocre Superman movie, Gunn’s choices have also been bizarre. Later this year, Gunn’s company will release Clayface, a movie no one asked for. He also gave us two seasons of The Peacemaker before it disappeared without a trace. Next up is Lanterns, because the Green Lantern is so widely popular.
And now he’s turned Supergirl into a drunken strumpet and cast a mouthy harridan as his lead, who is already out alienating the fanbase (guys) by pre-blaming this potential flop on us male sexists who can’t deal with female heroes, even though Pam Grier and Alien’s Ripley character are now iconic and still embraced by men everywhere.
Did anyone ask for any of this?
Gunn’s sensibility worked great 12 years ago in Guardians of the Galaxy, which people loved enough to coast through two mediocre sequels. His deconstructive approach felt fresh in the Obama era. Today, it’s all pretty tired and played out. Man alive, I hated his Suicide Squad movie.
We’ll know a lot more in about a month when Supergirl hits theaters.