Americans still aren’t sold on President Donald Trump’s economy — and many say the Iran war is making their financial situation worse.
Six months after The POLITICO Poll first found deep concern among voters, new results show Trump has been unable to improve their perception of the high cost of living and who is to blame.
In November, nearly half of Americans said the cost of living is the worst they can remember — as of May, 53 percent still say the same. In November, 46 percent of Americans said Trump holds full or most of the responsibility for the state of the economy — as of May, that number is virtually unchanged.
Now, a plurality say their finances have only worsened since Trump took office, including 18 percent of the president’s 2024 voters, according to the May survey conducted by Public First.
The findings underscore how Trump has struggled to find a winning midterm message on affordability, even as the economy remains healthy by many indicators. The president’s tendency to go off script, despite his allies’ urging, has further muddied GOP efforts. And the unpopular Iran war has Republicans barrelling toward November with voters’ financial fears remaining a stubborn, lingering political liability.
A majority of Americans say Trump has not done enough to protect them from the economic fallout from the war, which has caused gas, food and flight prices to spike. More than 60 percent — including majorities of both Trump voters and people who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 — say the war has made things more expensive for them overall.
“A major challenge for [Joe] Biden was that, as prices rose and worries about inflation took hold, the response from the Biden administration was that inflation was ‘transitory,’” said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist.
“Trump faces a similar predicament. As prices rise due to tariff and trade policies and global conflict, the response that it’s a hoax or not true is just a very discordant message given that so many voters are feeling a budget pinch right now,” he added.
The Iran war is increasingly overshadowing the Trump administration’s domestic economic messaging, as officials often get peppered with questions about oil and gas prices and battleground Republicans grow anxious that the extended conflict could hurt their chances in key Senate and House races this November.
The survey shows that Republicans’ attempts to place the economic blame on Biden aren’t resonating: Just 28 percent of Americans say the former president holds full or most of the responsibility for the current U.S. economy, compared with nearly half who lay much of the blame at Trump’s feet.
“The sooner the war winds down, the better for Trump when it comes to prospects in the midterms because the price of gas is so intricate in the notion of affordability,” said one Florida-based Republican strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai said the president “has been clear about short-term disruptions” and is focused on implementing his economic agenda.
“As traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes again, Americans will again see gas prices plummet, real wages grow, inflation cool, and trillions in investments continue pouring in,” Desai said in a statement.
Trump voters are far more likely than Harris voters to say that the president has taken sufficient action to curb costs from the Iran conflict, but even his own supporters are split: 43 percent say he has done enough, while 43 percent say he has not.
It’s a stark sign that mirrors broader divides within the GOP over the war, as some conservatives, such as media personality Tucker Carlson and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, have been vocal in their opposition to the conflict.
Still, Trump voters are much more willing than Harris voters — and Americans broadly — to say the U.S. should continue its involvement in Iran even if it increases costs, highlighting the trust they maintain in the president. A 42 percent plurality of Trump voters chose this option, compared with 11 percent of Harris voters and 22 percent of all respondents.
But Thursday brought more disappointing news for the administration: Inflation has climbed to its highest level since Trump returned to office, and the economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter of the year than previously estimated, the government reported.
Nearly half of Americans still blame inflation for the overall affordability challenges they are facing, the survey finds, even as roughly one-quarter say conflicts overseas are the main reason for their challenges.
Strong majorities of respondents say the prices of everyday items — such as gas, food and medicine — have somewhat or greatly increased in their area since Trump took office, including most of the people who voted for him.
Republican strategists argue that a resolution to the war could improve Americans’ perceptions of the economy, but the longer the conflict drags on, the more difficult it may become for the party to reverse voters’ views. Economic experts have already warned that gas prices will remain elevated for at least several more months as the global economy reels from the conflict.
“If you can get the gas prices back to pre-conflict levels, and the people in those 16 to 18 House districts that are going to decide this race, are feeling good in three or four states, then you’re in a much better shape than a lot of people think,” the GOP strategist said.