American retailers can expect strong consumer turnout this Thanksgiving weekend — but many shoppers appear poised to depend on credit cards at higher rates than in previous years.
A whopping 186.9 million Americans are expected to shop online and in-store from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday this year, marking a new record high, according to a National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics survey released on Nov. 20. While there have been recent reports that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could raise prices and cause some holiday shoppers to reduce their spending, analysts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that they expect solid overall buying activity, but with some consumers likely also relying on credit card debt. (RELATED: Possible Thanksgiving Storms Could Cause Delays As Record 81.8 Million Americans Expected To Travel)
“The holidays are an important part of many consumers’ budgets, and that trend is especially true this season,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a statement. “As a record number of shoppers are expected this Thanksgiving weekend, retailers are prepared to meet the needs of consumers with great value and convenience.”
#Thanksgiving weekend expected to draw largest number of shoppers on record. https://t.co/YtNTxuElzi pic.twitter.com/QynA7GG3wC
— National Retail Federation (@NRFnews) November 20, 2025
The NRF also reported on Nov. 6 that retail sales in November and December are expected to increase between 3.7% and 4.2% over the same period in 2024, which would amount to between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion in total spending. In 2024, holiday retail sales increased 4.3% over 2023, reaching a total of $976.1 billion in spending, according to the NRF.
“People’s spending habits will be somewhat bifurcated this Thanksgiving weekend, mirroring the barbell economy that has developed over the last five years,” E.J. Antoni, chief economist for the Heritage Foundation, told the DCNF in a statement. “Higher-income earners are flush with cash and will drive most of the spending but lower- and middle-income earners will have to rely on credit for much of their seasonal expenses. The situation has improved since this time last year, but there’s still well over $1.2 trillion in outstanding credit card debt, disproportionately concentrated on the lower end of the income scale.”
“The issue here is that during the Biden years, high-income earners did fine financially as their income growth tended to keep pace with inflation, but everyone outside of that group fell way behind, on average,” Antoni added. “Any additional spending was financed, typically on credit cards. Today, the top 10 percent of income earners account for about half of all retail sales, a very lopsided distribution.”
Consumers are projected to embrace using credit cards more this holiday season compared to last year, with 42% ranking it as their preferred method of payment, an increase from 38% in 2024, according to a TransUnion study published on Nov. 20. Total U.S. credit card debt notably was $1.23 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, while total auto loan debt remained steady at $1.66 trillion total, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported in November.
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – NOVEMBER 29: Shoppers visit Macy’s department store on Black Friday on November 29, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. Black Friday marks the official start of the holiday shopping season. (Photo by Kamil Krzaczynski/Getty Images)
Job Creators Network CEO Alfredo Ortiz told the DCNF in a statement that he anticipates spending to be “strong” this holiday weekend. Ortiz also said he believes projections that many Americans may rely more heavily on credit card purchases throughout this holiday season is a sign of “healthier, credit-worthy consumers.”
“Spending will be strong on Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, and Cyber Monday as consumers are in a far stronger position than the mainstream media portrays,” Ortiz said. “The Trump administration’s pro-growth policies have led to the lowest gas prices in several years, expanded and permanent tax cuts, rising real wages, and record stock markets, giving Americans more disposable income to spend.”
“More credit card purchases are further proof of healthier, credit-worthy consumers who are confident they can pay off their balances while collecting points and rewards,” Ortiz continued. “These trends will especially benefit small businesses, which are looking forward to robust local spending on Small Business Saturday, marking a stark contrast from the Biden administration, where inflation-weary consumers often had to purchase abroad to pinch every penny.”
Antoni however told the DCNF that he expects to see “slightly less” reliance on credit cards among some holiday shoppers this year compared to recent years.
“Fortunately, and in contrast to the Biden years, incomes have risen faster than prices this year, so some Americans have cash to pay for things like Thanksgiving dinner and Christmas presents,” Antoni explained. “We can expect slightly less reliance on credit cards, which is very positive news since credit card balances are already swollen and interest rates on those cards [remain] near a record high.”
The average credit card interest rate in the U.S. was 24.04% in November, a decrease from October’s 24.19%, LendingTree reported on Nov. 7.
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – NOVEMBER 29: People visit the H&M store during Black Friday sales at American Dream Mall on November 29, 2024 in East Rutherford City. (Photo by Kena Betancur/Getty Images)
In May, toy manufacturing company Mattel said that it was eyeing price hikes on some toys due to tariffs, just days after Trump suggested during the end of a Cabinet meeting on April 30 that American children may “have two dolls instead of 30 dolls” if his tariffs spurred higher consumer prices across the nation, NBC News reported. Trump also asserted in April that “maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally” due to his tariffs being imposed on several U.S. trading partners, according to the outlet.
Shoppers are planning to dish out an average of $890.49 per person on gifts, food items, decorations and other seasonal products during the 2025 winter holidays, according to NRF projections released on Oct. 16. U.S. consumer sentiment declined sharply in November, with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index decreasing by 6.8 points in November to 88.7, down from 95.5 in October, the board reported on Tuesday.
Several key Thanksgiving meal grocery items are expected to cost a bit less this year than they did the year prior, according to a survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation released on Nov. 19. Moreover, the average price of gas across the nation is expected to be $3.02 per gallon on Thanksgiving Day, marking the lowest holiday level since the pandemic, fuel savings platform GasBuddy reported on Nov. 18.
“The return of a pro-energy agenda has helped boost production and put downward pressure on prices, giving consumers the cheapest gasoline in four years, and thereby reducing the cost for families driving to see loved ones this week,” Antoni added. “As the administration fine tunes its tariff strategy, such as removing import duties on coffee, we can expect the price of some consumer staples to come down more.”
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