While summer isn’t often associated with runny noses and bothersome coughs, it does tend to be a time when many people get sick with COVID-19 — and this summer is looking to be no different.
Health tracking data show that COVID-19 rates are rising (yet are still very low) in certain parts of the United States.
“I was looking at the CDC data … and it does look like they’re starting to see an uptick in COVID that they’re finding in wastewater testing in several states, primarily in the South and the West Coast,” said Dr. Susan Kline, a professor in the division of infectious diseases and international medicine at the University of Minnesota.
According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention wastewater testing, California, Nevada, Hawaii, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi all have low levels of COVID activity, compared to the very low levels in most other states.
But two states are exceptions: Missouri and Alaska are reporting moderate levels of COVID.
COVID testing and case reporting aren’t as prevalent anymore due to funding changes and fewer people taking at-home coronavirus tests, so exactly how much COVID is out there is harder to track now.
“I think wastewater testing has become a convenient way to track the trends in a community or in a state because there’s no special lab test required for that,” Kline added.
Overall, COVID cases throughout the country are still low, and this is also true of other respiratory viruses such as the flu and RSV, noted Dr. George Rutherford, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California, San Francisco.
Yet even as cases are low in most places, a summer increase isn’t surprising, said Dr. Neil Maniar, a professor of public health at Northeastern University in Boston.
“If you look back over the last few years … the lowest rates across the country are usually late June, early July, and then in August you start to see this increase in rates,” Klein said.
“And last year there was actually a peak in late August, going into mid-September. And we don’t know for sure if that’s going to be replicated this year, but it is a possibility,” said Kline. Beyond summer, COVID then tends to peak in the winter around late December, early January, she added.
“I think we’re now at a point with COVID where it’s fallen into a somewhat predictable pattern,” said Maniar. “There are these seasonal ebbs and flows of COVID cases, and what we’re seeing right now is a reflection of probably a couple different factors.”
For example, fewer people are getting the COVID vaccine, in general, which means more people are susceptible to getting sick, Maniar said. Just 17.5% of American adults and 8.9% of children received the 2025-2026 COVID vaccine, according to CDC data.
More, summer travel is associated with more cases and a higher chance of getting sick, Maniar said.
Think about it: People congregate in crowded airports, planes and trains to get to crowded attractions.
Plamen Zahariev via Getty Images
Hand-washing, masking and staying home when you’re sick are all good ways to protect yourself and others from COVID.
“I don’t think it’s anything to be particularly concerned about in terms of are we going to see another massive surge, but I think it is important for folks to recognize that, as has been the case from the very beginning of this pandemic, there are some very effective ways that we have to keep ourselves safe [and] to keep others around us safe,” said Maniar.
Klein said it’s a good idea to stay away from people who are coughing and sneezing. If you do have to be near people who appear to be ill, such as on a plane or train, wear a mask.
“Wash your hands frequently,” Klein added.
“The other thing I would recommend is if you’re ill with symptoms of respiratory tract infection [coughing, sneezing, sore throat], it’s best to stay home so you don’t spread it to other people,” she said.
If you do have symptoms, take a COVID test, she added. Current at-home tests can detect the COVID variants circulating now.
If you test positive and are in certain high-risk groups, you may be eligible for Paxlovid, which can reduce your risk of long COVID and help you get better faster. “It’s better to start that early on in the illness, like right after you start feeling sick and you test positive for COVID,” Klein said.
Vaccination offers the best protection.
The best way to protect yourself from COVID is by getting the COVID vaccine.
The new 2026-2027 COVID vaccine isn’t available yet (it is due to be out in the fall), but the 2025-2026 COVID vaccine is available at pharmacies throughout the country.
“It’s preferable to get that more updated [2026-2027] vaccine, because the FDA had advised the COVID vaccine manufacturers to more closely match the currently circulating SARS-CoV-2 viruses … so, personally, I would hold off,” said Klein of getting the older vaccine, but “there could be some exceptions to that rule.”
Rutherford agrees. Most people should wait until the new formulation comes out and then get vaccinated, but for those in certain high-risk groups who get two COVID shots per year, it’s likely worth getting your second shot now if you haven’t already, said Rutherford.
Also, if you have a big vacation coming up, it could also be smart to get the 2025-2026 shot, said Klein. It’s best to talk to your doctor to see what’s best for your health.
“The goal of the vaccine from the beginning has been to reduce the likelihood of hospitalization and death from COVID, and that’s still the case,” added Maniar.
“As the new vaccine is formulated and becomes available — September, October, people should move to get it, just like they move to get their flu vaccine,” Rutherford said.
Maniar added, “as we’re talking about vaccines, one of the things we are seeing right now is a huge surge in measles cases.”
“We’re going to be entering flu season in just a few months, so vaccinations are one of our most important front lines of defense against these illnesses,” Maniar noted.
Vaccines are safe, effective and “there’s no reason these days for anybody to get measles,” Maniar said.
“We have the means to prevent massive flu outbreaks, and COVID outbreaks, even, for that matter. So, we’re fortunate to have these tools, and I think we should use them,” Maniar noted.
“People should get their kids vaccinated against measles, mumps and rubella,” Rutherford said, adding that not doing so is “inexcusable.”