CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten on Tuesday spelled out how Democratic turnout in this year’s primaries could be a sign that the party will take back the U.S. House in November.
“We’re about halfway through the primary season so far, and this is perhaps the best sign for Democrats, because when people are going out there to vote, they’re voting Democratic to a historic degree,” Enten said.
That’s a notable jump from 2022, when the majority of primary ballots were cast by Republicans (53%) compared to Democrats (47%).
In the 2018 midterm cycle, Democrats held a 54% share of primary votes cast before the party took back the House that November.
“This is a historically strong position for Democrats. The energy is on the Democratic side of the aisle,” Enten declared.
Enten, when asked by CNN’s John Berman how parties with greater primary turnout fare in the midterms, emphasized that the party with the edge has gone on to win the House every time since 2006.
“When your side comes out and votes more in the primary, it forecasts very good fortunes come the fall in midterm elections,” he said.
“When more of you turn out, you take back the House or hold onto the House.”