It is clear now why Republicans are spending hundreds of millions of dollars in Texas, beyond trying to prop up the worst Senate candidate in the country. Ken Paxton is unpopular and scandal-riddled, but he was Donald Trump’s choice to be the state’s Senate nominee, so the Republican Party is left trying to figure out how to get Paxton elected or face humiliation in one of the flagship states for conservatism in the United States.
It is not going great. Paxton has been everything his critics thought he was and more. The Republican candidate has spent more time complaining about his own party and Trump weighing him down than he has debating his opponent, because Ken Paxton has ignored pleas from his party and refused to debate.
Republicans in Texas have become so comfortable because they haven’t faced a real threat of losing statewide in decades. The state Republican Party has worked tirelessly to suppress the vote and redraw congressional districts to keep themselves in power.
Their reinforced statewide one-party rule was working great until Donald Trump came along and broke everything.
Trump made himself and his party so unpopular that the backbone of the Republican base has started to crack. Rural voters, white voters, and soft Republicans (non-MAGAs) are fleeing the party. The 2024 gains with Hispanic voters look like a mirage.
On Tuesday, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson echoed Republican Party talking points by suggesting that all of the polls are wrong because they aren’t talking to enough Republicans.
A new poll of Texas measured the electorate based on the results of the 2024 election (Trump +14), and it showed that James Talarico is on course to win.