Group of people drinking beer and eating at a bar.
Preventable cancers could cost the U.K. more than $1.5 trillion over the next 25 years, a report has shown.
Researchers think 3.7 million new cases of cancers linked to risk factors like smoking and alcohol consumption could be diagnosed in the country between 2023 and 2040 in the U.K.
By 2048, the cost of these cancers to the individual, to families, to the healthcare system, as well as to the economy in the form of lost productivity, may reach as high as $1.58 trillion (£1.26 trillion).
Some 40 percent of cancer diagnoses are thought to be linked to risk factors like obesity, UV exposure, alcohol and smoking, with lung, bowel, melanoma and breast cancer the most affected.
Researchers estimated how many more of potentially preventable cancer cases would develop as the country’s population changes.
Although cancer rates themselves weren’t expected to significantly rise, growth in population means the sheer number of people being diagnosed should increase.
The researchers expect 184,000 people to develop a preventable cancer this year, with associated costs hitting around $97 billion (£78 billion). By 2040, new cases could grow to 226,000.
Commissioned by The Guardian and performed by Frontier Economics, the research has not been peer-reviewed and is not published in a scientific journal. And the trends in cancer incidence and population it uses to forecast the future may not pan out as predicted.
Nonetheless, the results are “a stark reminder” of the need for cancer prevention policies, Cancer Research UK chief executive Michelle Mitchell told The Guardian.
“If recent trends continue, smoking could cause around 1m more cancer cases in the U.K. between now and 2040. And more than 21 million U.K. adults could be obese, which would increase their risk of over 13 types of cancer.” she added.
Research published in BMJ Oncology last week hinted that cancer may be on the rise among under-50s, with 79% more cases being diagnosed in 2019 than 1990.
But this figure does not reflect the fact the world’s population has grown by more than 40% over this period. In addition, cancer reporting may have improved, as opposed to rates themselves increasing so markedly.
The researchers acknowledged these limitations, but still cautioned that risk factors like physical inactivity, excess weight and salty diets may be driving some growth in cancer rates among younger people.
Professor Stephen Duffy from Queen Mary University of London, who was not involved in the research, said the results were “interesting”, but would need “considerable time and thought” to interpret properly.
Some of the results chimed with observations from other research, such as an increase in the proportion of women under 50 being diagnosed with breast cancer in the U.K — an observation that he noted does not seem to be linked to improvements in screening.
“There are many interesting results here,” he told the Science Media Centre, “but they are complicated, and the cancer prevention and control community will need to take a long look at them…. to consider exactly what they mean and what we can do to reverse some of the increasing trends.”