Reform UK leader Nigel Farage appears set for a convincing victory in the upcoming special by-election in Clacton, which he called for amid accusations of impropriety surrounding gifts he received as a private citizen before becoming a Member of Parliament.
Last month, Mr Farage sensationally announced his resignation from Parliament and his intention to stand in a by-election to allow the people of Clacton to render their verdict on whether they wish for him to continue representing their interests in the House of Commons.
At the heart of the issue was a series of high-profile gifts, including a £5 million gift from British cryptocurrency investor Christopher Harborne, intended to pay for a personal security detail for the frequently threatened Brexit champion.
An alleged failure to declare such gifts led to a parliamentary standards committee investigation, which coincided with financial leaks to legacy media and the doorstepping of his daughter by reporters, sparking further security concerns.
In an apparent attempt to undermine the legitimacy of the by-election — despite the same mechanism being used just two months ago to install Prime Minister Andy Burnham in office — the major parties, including Labour, refused to stand a candidate.
However, new polling suggests that the establishment parties’ boycott may have stemmed from fear of a heavy defeat to Mr Farage, who remains popular in his constituency.
According to a poll conducted by Survation between the 16th and 24th of last month, 73 per cent of decided voters plan to vote for the Reform leader.
In a distant second place is joke candidate Count Binface, with 20 per cent of the committed vote, who appears to be a stand-in protest candidate for supporters of parties that refused to stand in the election.
Followed by Binface, is five per cent for “another party” and two per cent for Reclaim Party leader Laurence Fox.
Reform also holds a commanding lead regardless of the boycott in terms of party preference in a future general election. Surveyed on which party they would support in a national election, 56.9 per cent backed Farage’s Reform Party, followed by 10.7 per cent for the Conservative Party, 8.6 per cent for the left-wing Labour Party, 6.7 per cent for the Liberal Democrats, 8.9 per cent for the Greens, and 8.2 per cent for “another party”.
A Reform supporter told the polling firm that he believed that “Nigel is being harassed over everything he does, and they’re trying to get him out because of the £5 million. They’ll find any way they can to attack him.”
Commenting on the race on Tuesday, Mr Farage said: “I’m being called a crook, a criminal, an extremist. Frankly, much of what is being said is incitement. They’ve even dragged, disgustingly, my family into it. I’ve called this by-election so you can decide. Do you want me as your MP? Do you believe in me or not? It is the people of Clacton versus the establishment.”
“The bigger the vote on August the 13th, the bigger the message to the establishment that we’re sick of the failed two-party system. We’ve had enough. We want something fresh, something new, something that actually believes in this country, proud of being British, and we’re absolutely going to control our borders, stop the boats, and start putting British people first.”