Heading into 2026, Republicans dreamed of flipping Democratic-held Senate seats in Georgia and Michigan, and while Michigan remains a close race, Sen. Jon Ossoff is headed for a potential rout in Georgia.
Republicans also thought that they could hold the seat of retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis in North Carolina. Trump forced Tillis into retirement and installed his former RNC Chair Michael Whatley as the party’s nominee, but in one of his better moments, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer convinced popular former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper to run for the seat.
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Cooper has been campaigning throughout the state, talking about affordability and the economy every day. Whatley has been stuck with Trump.
Former Gov. Cooper has had a solid lead in North Carolina, and it only seemed like a matter of time before Republicans took their money elsewhere and virtually conceded the seat to Democrats; that process seems to be starting to occur with about a month to go before Election Day.
Republicans have a massive cash advantage, but it doesn’t seem to be helping them so far, and the GOP is on the defensive in red states.