Russian officials on Monday appointed Gen. Andrey Averyanov, head of covert offensive operations for Russian military intelligence, to supervise the mercenary Wagner Group’s valuable operations in Africa following the reported death of its founders, Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, in a plane crash last week.
Some global intelligence analysts thought Averyanov might have played some role in creating the vacancy he just filled, because the most notorious “covert offensive operation” he has been linked to is the poisoning of double agent Sergei Skripal on British soil in March 2018.
Skripal and his daughter Yulia were found unconscious on a bench in the city of Salisbury and remained in critical condition for weeks, barely surviving exposure to a military-grade Soviet-era nerve agent called Novichok. The same nerve weapon was used in an unsuccessful attempt to assassinate Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny in Siberia in 2020.
The UK Daily Mail last week quoted British intelligence sources who thought Prigozhin’s “days were numbered” before he was killed in a plane crash, and there was “a lot of discussion” in the intelligence community that Averyanov might be the man doing the numbering.
Averyanov was known to dislike Prigozhin and last month he was actually overheard introducing himself to African leaders as Prigozhin’s likely replacement during a summit in St. Petersburg.
Russian Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) Deputy Director Andrey Averyanov attends a bilateral meeting, on July 29, 2023, in Saint Petersburg, Russia. (Contributor/Getty Images)
“Channels linked to Wagner on the social media site Telegram said the meetings were part of a Kremlin ‘displacement operation’ to oust Prigozhin,” the Daily Mail noted.
At the time of the St. Petersburg summit, Prigozhin was on the outs with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin after leading a mutiny against the Russian military and marching on Moscow. There was much speculation in global media over how Wagner’s operations in Africa might continue without Prigozhin, but almost universal agreement that Wagner’s role in spreading Russian influence and controlling African natural resources was too valuable to simply break the company up.
Prigozhin seemed to have patched things up with Putin, or at least convinced him that Priogzhin’s management of Wagner operations was too valuable to remove him. Prigozhin’s alleged death last week, in a suspicious plane crash that Russian authorities claimed also killed most of Wagner’s top leaders, suggests Putin may have revised his calculations.
An infographic titled “Russian paramilitary group Wagner” shows the mercenaries continue to have a significant presence in Middle East and Africa. (Mahmut Resul Karaca/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Ukrainian media last Friday quoted two British intelligence sources who said Averyanov had a “long-standing hostile relationship” with Prigozhin and was leading an operation to replace Wagner’s mercenaries in Africa with some 20,000 Russian military personnel. Ukrainian intelligence is reportedly investigating if Averyanov played a role in sabotaging Prigozhin’s plane.
African officials told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on Friday they expected Prigozhin would swiftly be replaced, with no disruption to the security services Wagner provides them. The Africans generally regarded Wagner as a covert arm of the Russian state.
“We signed up for a partnership with the Russian state,” said Central African Republic (CAR) minister Pascal Koyagbele.
European security officials worried about the “risk” that Prigozhin loyalists within Wagner would violently resist a Russian government takeover, or take their anger out on the locals with “more violence against civilians.”
A man holds a flag bearing the logo of Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner as supporters of Niger’s National Council for Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) gather at the General Seyni Kountche stadium in Niamey on Agust 26, 2023. (AFP via Getty Images)
Dissent in the Wagner ranks could also create an opportunity for jihadist forces in countries like Mali, which have grown dependent on Russian mercenaries for security after turning against European partners.
A particularly sticky situation awaits Averyanov in Sudan, where Russia is formally allied with junta boss Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan – but Wagner forces have been assisting his rival in the brutal Sudanese civil war, militia commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo.
According to these European sources, Putin has been maneuvering Averyanov into position as the new Wagner chief for several weeks, even before Prigozhin’s death. Russian officials have been telling their African contacts that Wagner would be nationalized ever since Prigozhin aborted his mutiny.