Look around today in the world of business news — and out your door. It doesn’t feel like a bull market.
And that’s probably good for the profit-seeking bulls. Be hated, and let markets climb that proverbial wall of worry quietly.
Target’s stock has been slapped with two high-profile Wall Street rating downgrades in as many weeks on fears of shoppers buying a lot less of things they don’t need this summer.
Definitely not a bullish signal.
Campbell’s Soup CEO conceded to me last week in a Yahoo Finance Live interview that cheaper private label soups (yuck) are gaining traction.
More customers trading down? Not bullish.
I was just out to lunch with one prominent consumer CEO and he is more concerned with executing a major round of layoffs and planning for a cautious holiday shopping season that developing the next big widget.
You guessed it, also not bullish.
Jeweler Signet said people are buying cheaper engagement rings, in what was deemed a lackluster set of quarterly results last week.
At least hotel chains such as Marriott and Hilton are seeing strong demand this summer, according to their respective top execs. Ditto United Airlines.
But by and large, it doesn’t feel like a rip-roaring bull market in stocks that has everyone out in the street jumping for joy and spending on frivolous nothings.
Yet, the bull market has returned, technically speaking.
The latest bull market is believed to have started on Oct. 13, 2022, a day after the S&P 500 closed at a low of 3,577. Since then, the S&P 500 has powered itself to a 21% gain — i.e. bull market territory.
Pros think the gains could continue for a little while longer for a few reasons.
For one, the bull market still has its chorus of haters who don’t believe stocks deserve to trade at these levels because of higher interest rates and a meh economy.
As the data likely keeps coming in contrary to their bearishness, they could toss in the towel and join the early bulls. That means stocks go higher.
Meanwhile, there are fundamental drivers in place to support stocks at higher levels than they trade at today.
“Investors have bought into a singular equity theme (AI) but a broader bull case for stocks can be made: we are off of ZIRP [zero interest rate policy] and real yields are positive again, volatility around rates and inflation has subsided, estimate dispersion (earnings uncertainty) has declined and companies have preserved margins by cutting costs and focusing on efficiency. After a fast hiking cycle, the Fed has latitude to ease. The equity risk premium could fall from here,” Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian said in a new client note.
Savita’s note was titled: “Bye bye, bear.”
Perfectly captured.
Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn. Tips on the banking crisis? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com
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