In its 2025 budget, the Sri Lankan government has allocated its Ministry of Defense (MoD) 442 billion Sri Lankan rupees (around $1.5 billion), a 3 percent increase from $1.45 billion in 2024, and up 15 percent from $1.3 billion in 2023.
Only the Ministries of Finance, Planning and Economic Development ($2.41 billion), Health and Mass Media ($1.71 billion), Public Administration, and Provincial Councils, and Local Government ($1.68 billion) received bigger budgets. The Ministry of Transport, Highways, Ports, and Civil Aviation got $1.42 billion, while the Ministry of Public Security and Parliamentary Affairs, under which the Police Department falls, has been allocated $600 million.
While the Sri Lankan Army has been allocated $761 million, the Sri Lanka Navy and the Air Force will receive $313 million and $244 million, respectively. These represent an increase of 3 percent, 12 percent, and 4 percent over last year, respectively.
As noted here in the past, the bulk of the MoD budget goes for recurrent expenditure, and this year $1.29 billion was allocated for that purpose. Only about $203 million has been allocated for capital expenditure. The bulk of the Ministry of Public Security budget (about $540 million) has also been earmarked for recurrent expenses.
During his speech in Parliament as the minister of defense, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said that his government is committed to the decision taken by the previous government to reduce troop numbers.
“Our vision is to develop a technologically advanced military with a smaller yet more effective force by 2030. We plan to limit the size of our army to 100,000, the Air Force to 18,000, and the Navy to 40,000,” he said.
While technically this should mean that the government can reduce defense expenditure, a demand by certain sections, given that the bulk of the allocation is for recurrent expenditure and salaries and other allowances for troops, it is highly unlikely that the National People’s Power government will reduce defense expenses in the coming years. In fact, there are a number of indications that the defense budget will grow.
For one, the reduction of the troops under the so-called “rightsizing” of the military isn’t as large as people assume. The Sri Lankan Army, which was about 300,000 strong in 2009, when the decades-long civil war ended, declined to around 135,000 in 2024. By December 31, 2023, the Navy had 44,532 personnel, and the Air Force had 17,567 regular airmen and 9,076 volunteer airmen.
Interesting, over the past 16 years, while Sri Lanka has reduced its troop numbers drastically, the defense budgets have only risen.
The NPP government has also indicated that it will create a more professional force that uses modern technology, and this essentially means that they would keep recruiting young men and women who are better qualified academically. The government has announced plans to recruit 4,000 airmen and 20,000 new police officers in the coming years. While the president did not mention new recruits to the navy, I believe they too will be allowed to take a few thousand more sailors in the coming years, given the importance the NPP government is giving the maritime domain.
The government has also decided to give a substantial salary increase to the police force, and it is quite likely that a similar salary hike would be given to the tri-force personnel, which is essential to attract better talent.
Another reason why the defense budget is destined to increase is the president’s promise to transform the military into “a more technologically advanced force.” Dissanayake has promised to modernize the naval and air force fleet, boost spending on foreign training, and provide better rest and recreation facilities for the troops. These are welcome developments given that from 2009, successive Sri Lankan governments neglected military modernization. The Sri Lankan Navy and Air Force operate fleets that should be in military museums, and the training, both local and international, received by military personnel has dropped.
Last month, Air Force Commander Udeni Rajapaksa revealed plans to modernize Sri Lanka’s aging fleet. Last year, the Navy launched its NAVSTRAT–2030, a proposal for the Navy’s strategy up to 2030 and beyond, a strategy aligned with former President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s development strategy.
However, questions remain about the sourcing of new military technology and training. What would be the origin of the new technologies Sri Lankan forces would use in the coming years? Asia is not only the leading consumer of arms, but also a significant producer of armaments.
While the security forces may have a vision of ideal troop/aircraft/vessel composition, ultimately all these are subjected to politics. A state, especially a small island nation like Sri Lanka, cannot purchase equipment based on purely financial or operational factors. Geopolitical considerations play a big role in defense procurement. For example, most countries would only sell weapons to nations they see as allies and states procure weapon systems, for the most part, to demonstrate their allegiance to the manufacturing nation. In the case of Sri Lanka, previous attempts at buying aircraft from Pakistan were thwarted by Indian objections. Sri Lanka has kneecapped its marine research because of U.S. and Indian objections to Chinese research vessels docking in the country.
In the past few decades, many countries in Asia have invested considerable resources in developing their own domestic arms industries. China, and to a lesser extent India and South Korea, have moved from producing relatively simple kinds of weaponry to military equipment of greater complexity and sophistication.
In 2025, China is virtually self-sufficient in armaments and a world leader in future defense technologies. Beijing also exports nearly every category of conventional military equipment, from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to naval vessels and fighter aircraft at cheaper prices and with less political strings. India too has imported sizable amounts of foreign military technology – mostly from the Soviet Union/Russia but also from France and the United Kingdom – to establish and expand its indigenous military-industrial complex. In the 2023-24 financial year, India sold weapons worth $2.63 billion; Business Standard reports that Indian defense exports grew 31 times between 2014 and 2024.
Despite Sri Lanka downsizing its military force, necessary personnel enhancements, and technological modernization suggest that the defense budget will continue to increase. Moreover, the defense purchases it makes will be intertwined with geopolitical considerations, especially given that India fears that the NPP is ideologically pro-Chinese. The selection of partners for weapons and training will be a significant strategic decision for the NPP government.