The TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) has earned its reputation for providing value to both its customers and its long-term shareholders. Yet with shares up 34% over the past year and the stock now trading at roughly 32 times this year’s earnings estimates, the value proposition for investors may be fading.
Operationally, the business remains strong. In the first quarter, same-store (comp) sales rose 6%, driven by higher customer traffic and spending per visit. The balanced growth across TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, which posted an impressive 9% comp, shows the company continues to attract a broad range of customers.
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The company’s “treasure hunt” shopping experience has proven a durable advantage that resonates with younger shoppers. These Gen Z and millennial shoppers now account for a disproportionate number of its new customers, according to management.
TJX’s margins are also expanding at a time when many retailers are facing pressure, with gross margin expanding by nearly 2 percentage points, reaching 31.3% in the quarter.
An opportunistic buying model
The retailer’s track record stems from its ability to capitalize on shifting fashion trends. While most companies struggle with excess inventory, the off-price retailer takes advantage, acquiring merchandise at deep discounts during times of distress.
The company leverages its relationships with over 21,000 vendors, giving it unmatched access to deals on brand-name goods. This allows TJX to sell brand-name and designer merchandise at prices typically 20% to 60% below those of traditional retailers. This value proposition continues to drive consistent traffic to its stores.
With over 5,200 stores globally, extending the growth story requires creativity. Management has outlined a pathway to an additional 1,800 stores within its current markets.
A significant portion of this growth is focused on the U.S. home furnishings market, which management estimates is worth over $30 billion. The company recently raised its long-term store target for HomeGoods in the U.S. from 1,000 to 1,800 locations.
This banner, along with its growing Homesense format, offers a source of profitable growth to complement its maturing apparel business while facing limited off-price competition.