(Bloomberg) — Stocks declined Tuesday as the second-quarter rally met resistance from economic headwinds and signs that positioning is overbought.
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European stocks slipped for a second day as worries about the Chinese economy curbed risk appetite. Specialty chemicals company Lanxess AG fell 11% on a profit warning. US contracts declined after Wall Street was shut for a holiday Monday.
Investors caught between fear of missing out on the second-quarter rally and concerns it has run too far, too fast are contending with overblown valuations and economic headwinds. Bullish positioning in US equity futures grew last week, taking it to the most extended levels for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in data going back to 2010, according to Citigroup strategists.
“Given our fundamental view on growth, we find it hard to get on board with the current excitement and narrative” according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.
The path of US monetary policy is another wildcard. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will give his semi-annual report to Congress on Wednesday. Policymakers at the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at their latest meeting but warned of more tightening ahead.
The Fed decision last week came with forecasts for higher borrowing costs of 5.6% in 2023, implying two additional quarter-point rate hikes or one half-point increase before the end of the year.
Elsewhere in markets, US Treasury yields rose after the break from trading Monday. Oil fell as China’s plans to support its economy were seen as insufficient to reignite demand.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. whipsawed before trading about 1.5% lower Tuesday following the surprise replacement of its chief executive and chairman.
Key events this week:
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US housing starts, Tuesday
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks, Tuesday
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New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Tuesday
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual congressional testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Wednesday
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Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Wednesday
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Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
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Rate decisions in UK, Switzerland, Indonesia, Norway, Mexico, Philippines, Turkey, Thursday
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US Conference Board leading index, initial jobless claims, current account, existing home sales, Thursday
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual testimony to Congress before the Senate Banking Committee, Thursday
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Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester speaks, Thursday
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Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, Friday
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Japan CPI, Friday
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US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Friday
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks, Friday
–With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani, Brett Miller and Joe Easton.
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