Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) is edging out Democrat Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate race, a poll from Alliance for a Better Future, first obtained by Breitbart News, reveals.
The survey highlights a “major shift” from its September tracking poll of the race, showing Rogers with a three-point gain and El-Sayed with no movement.
In this survey, conducted October 6-8, 2026, Rogers sees 46 percent support — up from 43 percent in the last survey. El-Sayed remains flat with 44 percent support in both surveys. This gives Rogers a two-point edge ahead of the Democrat mere weeks ahead of election day.
The survey’s memo attributes Rogers’ boost, in part, to his support for AI security measures and the conservative organization’s efforts to highlight this policy:
In our September survey, the initial ballot stood at 44 percent – 43 percent in favor of El-Sayed. After voters were shown ABF’s Rogers ad, the informed ballot shifted to 47 percent – 45 percent in favor of Rogers. The hypothetical shift we saw in our September survey played out in reality over the past two weeks, as Rogers netted 3 percent of ballot share.
Building on this, earlier this week Rogers said he would “make it a top priority to pass the national security framework we need on AI.”
This coincides with the 81 percent of voters in the survey that stated they want “further federal regulation of AI.”
The survey was conducted among 600 likely Michigan voters and coincides with the conservative organization also highlighting Rogers’s AI framework position in a seven-figure TV and digital campaign in September.
This also comes as Rogers warns that El-Sayed will not “moderate” if he gets into office.
“But I will tell you this, Hasan Piker,” Rogers said during an appearance on The Ingraham Angle. “Every time Abdul comes out and says, ‘Well, maybe I’m kind of moderating,’ Hasan Piker says, ‘Don’t believe him. He’s lying.’ He’s not that way. This is the way he is. His sister, a very open Hamas supporter, is also saying, ‘Hey, listen, when he says he’s trying to moderate, he’s not moderating.’ He is very, very much that Democrat, socialist, Islamist kind of type person.”
The current RealClearPolling average of the race is tight, showing El-Sayed leading Rogers by an average of 2.7 percentage points.