CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten on Wednesday said the longtime Democratic “fantasy” of turning Texas blue could actually happen in this year’s Senate race.
“The GOP is right to be scared,” he wrote on X.
Several Senate Republicans were angry this week after President Donald Trump endorsed scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over John Cornyn, who has held the seat since 2002.
The move makes Paxton the favorite for the GOP nomination to run against Democratic candidate James Talarico, but Enten said the numbers show just how risky that will be for Republicans.
“The idea that Democrats can’t win in Texas, I want to put that to rest,” he said during a segment on CNN. “They could very well do it. James Talarico could very well win in Texas.”
Then, he laid out the three sets of numbers that show why that’s possible.
Talarico, he noted, is currently up by 4 percentage points over Paxton in the latest poll ― better than any Democratic candidate for Senate in Texas has polled in at least 24 years at this point in the race.
“Texas, Democrats have dreamt about turning it blue,” he said. “This time, the numbers actually support the idea that they may actually be able to do it.”
Democrats had some optimism in 2018, when Beto O’Rourke took on Sen. Ted Cruz.
But Enten pointed out that Cruz’s net approval rating was at +7 in May 2018. Paxton’s net approval, on the other hand, is currently underwater by 7 percentage points after a series of scandals and an impeachment attempt.
“Ted Cruz was actually decently popular,” Enten said. “But Ken Paxton is anything but. In poll after poll after poll, he is underwater. No wonder Republican senators are running scared.”
Finally, there’s Trump himself, who was at +4 points in net popularity in Texas in 2018, but is now 3 percentage points underwater in the state.
“You put it all together: You look at the general election polls. You look at the popularity of the potential Republican candidates that’ll be running for Texas Senate. You look at Donald Trump’s popularity as well,” he said. “And you go, ‘OK, Texas is absolutely in play.’”
Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988.
Check out Enten’s full analysis below: