The best government bond market may be outside the United States.
Allspring Global Investments’ George Bory is pushing clients toward countries whose central banks are raising interest rates or have different inflation dynamics.
“Bond markets everywhere have rushed to price inflation. Places like the UK, certainly across Europe, even places like Australia — we’ve seen a material run-up in central bank tightening expectations,” he told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Now, some of that’s been delivered on already. The ECB raised rates just a few weeks ago. The expectation is they will do a bit more. But unless the Fed is going to validate those moves, they’re going to have to move at a slower pace than perhaps what’s priced in.”
Bory works as chief investment strategist in fixed income at Allspring — an asset management firm primarily focused on fixed income, money markets, and stocks. According to Allspring’s website, clients range from consultants and financial advisors to corporations and financial institutions.
“Short to intermediate duration global government developed market bonds [are] not a bad spot to be, especially for those central banks that are really tethered to inflation,” he said. “If they’re going to move aggressively, that will help bond investors. And so, adding that international duration … mixing it with some U.S. duration. Now we’re playing different rate cycles, and that works really, really nicely.”
The Fed hasn’t hiked rates in the U.S. since July 2023. The CME Group’s FedWatch gauge as of late Friday shows a 78% chance the Fed will hike rates in December. The odds dipped to 68% in January 2027.
Meanwhile, Bory highlights the European Central Bank’s move earlier this month. The ECB raised its rates 25 basis points to 2.25% on June 11 — the first rate hike since Sept. 2023.
Steve Laipply, the global co-head of iShares Fixed Income ETFs at BlackRock, also sees advantages for investors going abroad. He points to fixed-income securities issued in Europe that offer lower risk and higher yields.
“Many of our clients, many bond investors, [are] very US-centric,” Bory added. “It’s a big world out there, you know. The global bond market is massive, and diversifying both your duration, your credit risk, and even your security selection can do … good things for your portfolio.”