National Rally leader Marine Le Pen and her long standing deputy Jordan Bardella put on a display of unity over the weekend ahead of a crucial judicial decision which will decide the fate of the party and potentially the future French government.
At a social gathering of National Rally (RN) activists in the populist stronghold of Pas-de-Calais, three-times French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen put on a brave face as she faces the prospect of a “political death sentence” over alleged use of European Union funds intended to cover party costs in Brussels and Strasbourg on party costs in France, a relatively common occurrence amongst EU parliamentarians that has been used to bar Le Pen from standing in any election for a five year period.
With the appeal ruling expected on Tuesday, more than a year after the initial judgement, the anti-mass migration party will finally learn whether they will once again see Le Pen run for the presidency, or if they will have to shift their support behind her 30-year-old deputy Jordan Bardella, who has been pitched as a “plan B” candidate in case the ban on Le Pen is upheld.
Regardless of the outcome in the court on Tuesday, Le Pen said per Le Figaro that she and Bardella will “run this campaign together” and will offer the public a “duo of people who trust each other, who think the same, who share convictions, who share the same method as well.”
The RN leader said that if the justice system bars her from running in next year’s presidential race, will “with great energy, great conviction, and great confidence” support the candidacy of Bardella.
“Jordan and I have been working together for years,” she told supporters. “We have a great friendship, great trust in each other. And if that were not the case, I would not have given Jordan Bardella, at 23, the prominent responsibility of leading the European campaign (in 2019). He has never betrayed that trust. He has always met every challenge entrusted to him with brilliance, energy, conviction, and expertise.”
For his part, Bardella also pledged support for his political mentor, saying of Le Pen: “I want to reaffirm my full support, my complete friendship, to tell her again that I committed myself to her in politics, to see her elected President of the Republic.”
While the National Rally’s stated preference has been for Le Pen to be its candidate in next year’s elections and for Bardella to be appointed by her after becoming president, the reverse is also possible, even if the ban on Le Pen standing for office is upheld by the appellate court on Tuesday.
Indeed, given that the appointment of a prime minister in France is at the sole discretion of the president, should Bardella be elected to the Élysée Palace, he would have the authority to appoint Le Pen as his PM. However, it remains to be seen if Le Pen would want the position, which is significantly less prestigious than the presidency and can be tedious in dealing with the often fractious National Assembly.
There are also potential legal avenues outside of a direct overturning of the initial ruling which could potentially allow Le Pen to run for office.
According to Professor of Public Law at the University of Paris-Panthéon-Assas, Guillaume Drago, it is possible that even if the facts of the case are affirmed by the court, the punishment of a five-year-ban may be overturned at the national level. Drago said that it could potentially be argued that Members of European Parliament — as Le Pen was at the time of the alleged offence — do not meet the standard of “holders of public authority” or “persons entrusted with a public service mission” as stated in the Article 432-15 of the Penal Code concerning the offence because they do not represent the sovereign will of the French public, which can only be represented at the national level.
Novel legal theories aside, it is also possible that the court reduces the punishment. Should the prohibition on Le Pen standing for office be reduced from five years to anything two years or under, she would likely be able to run in next year’s race as the ineligibility would have officially started at the original ruling in March of 2025.
If her appeal is defeated on Tuesday, Le Pen could also launch a further appeal to the Court of Cassation, the top judicial authority in the country. However, this is unlikely as it would limit the National Rally’s ability to coalesce around a single candidate ahead of the elections, potentially empowering candidates from other parties to take control of the race.
Currently the populist party holds a commanding lead in the polls, with either Bardella or Le Pen at the top of the ticket. Perhaps given that his name carries less political baggage — with a Le Pen running in every presidential election since 1988 — Bardella appears to be in a stronger position in the polls than his mentor.
Unsurprisingly, Bardella’s rise in the polls has also coincided with reports of potential legal investigations into his past as well. The use of lawfare against right-wing populists across Europe has become a main bone of contention between the Trump administration and the EU, with the State Department reportedly expressing to their French counterparts that Washington views the trial against Le Pen as politically motivated.