Goldman studied where AI is squeezing labor markets. Here’s what it found

Artificial intelligence is starting to weigh on labor market across major developed economies, with effects varying across industries and seniority levels, according to Goldman Sachs.

The Wall Street investment bank found in its research that industries with greater exposure to AI automation have generally seen slower job openings growth since the second half of 2022, with the relationship particularly pronounced in Germany, Australia and the U.S.

Goldman said in its report published Wednesday that employment in information and communication services, among the industries most exposed to AI, has slowed across nearly all major developed economies since 2022.

However, employment in these industries remains near or above its long-run trend outside the U.S.

Looking more closely at highly AI-exposed industries, Goldman found a similar, though generally more muted, pattern of employment headwinds across other developed markets.

Employment in call centers, software publishing, management consulting and advertising has fallen sharply below its historical trend across developed markets, Goldman said.

Call centers stand out in particular. Employment in the industry is now below trend in the U.S., 39% lower, Canada, down 33%, and Germany 27% below trend, according to the report. Goldman said the pattern indicates that AI-related employment pressures are already visible in industries where tools capable of automating work are available.

Entry-level workers feel more pressure

The effects appear to be more pronounced for those looking to start their careers.

Goldman analyzed employment growth across more than 800 occupations and found that AI-related headwinds were the strongest among entry-level workers. It also found an additional, though smaller, negative effect among occupations considered to have a high risk of displacement from AI.

Across the broader labor market, a 10% occupational exposure to AI was associated with only a 0.1 percentage point drag on annual headcount growth in France, Canada and the U.S. But for entry-level workers, the impact ranged between more than 0.6 percentage point (Australia) and over 0.2 percentage point (U.S.).

Overall, the investment bank concluded that AI-related hiring pressures are clearly visible in employment data globally, but remain limited to a relatively narrow set of industries and workers.

Where AI adoption is highest

The labor market impact comes as AI adoption is spreading across developed economies.

Goldman combined 11 surveys measuring AI adoption across countries and found that major developed markets have adoption rates of roughly 15% to 20%.

France, the U.S., the Netherlands and the U.K. are leading AI adoption, while Italy, Japan and New Zealand were among the developed economies at the lower end of adoption.

Major emerging markets, meanwhile, had estimated adoption rates of between 10% and 15%.