National Rally leader Marine Le Pen continues to dominate the field of prospective presidential candidates to replace Emmanuel Macron in next year’s critical election, which is set to define French and European politics for years to come.
With just eight months left before voters in France head to the polls to select their next president, a survey conducted by Elabe has found that three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is on course for a historic victory, besting all current opponents in both rounds of voting.
Depending on the composition of the first round, the pollster predicted that the National Rally leader would garner between 34 and 35.5 per cent of the votes, being bolstered by one in five former Républicain voters defecting to her cause.
In a distant second place, former Macronist prime minister and current Mayor of Le Havre, Edouard Philippe, is projected to secure 17 to 20.5 per cent of first-round votes. Meanwhile, fellow former Macron prime minister Gabriel Attal has seen his support slide over the past month down to 12 to 12.5 per cent.
However, his candidacy may prove critical as a spoiler against Philippe, potentially splitting the centrist vote and allowing for insurgent far-leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon to reach the second round of voting.
While Mélenchon has seen his support decline as well, the 75-year-old radical leader of La France Insoumise (France in Rebellion/LFI) maintains 14 to 14.5 per cent of voting intentions, according to the poll. Some of Mélenchon’s vote appears to be moving towards the younger, and more media-friendly leftist MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, who has seen his support climb to between 11.5 and 14 per cent.
Le Pen’s challengers on the right have yet to gain any serious momentum, with both former Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau and Reconquest leader Éric Zemmour being projected to be easily eliminated following the first round of voting at 6-7 per cent and 4-4.5 per cent, respectively.
Turning to potential second-round matchups, the National Rally leader also holds a lead over all current candidates. The poll predicted that she would see the largest margin of victory against Mélenchon, with the survey estimating a staggering 69.5 to 30.5 per cent result.
Le Pen would also secure comfortable victories over Raphaël Glucksmann or Gabriel Attal, besting both left-wing candidates by a margin of 57 to 43 per cent. Edouard Philippe remains her most difficult opponent in the second round, yet she is still predicted to win by 52.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent.
Her dominant position in the polling comes despite the decades-long demonisation of her and the Le Pen dynasty by the Paris press and political establishment, perhaps demonstrating the popularity of her anti-mass migration platform with the French public.
On Friday, Le Pen’s second-in-command and likely prime minister, Jordan Bardella, said that if elected, the National Rally would immediately initiate a nationwide referendum on immigration, allowing the French people to have their voices heard on the abolition of birthright citizenship, welfare being reserved for citizens, and the “systematic expulsion of foreign offenders and criminals”.
“Immigration threatens our security and our public finances. Of the 500,000 people who enter France legally each year, only 50,000 have an employment contract. The others are a burden on the taxpayer: this is no longer acceptable! We will finally restore order,” he said.
Should Le Pen break through in France and enact a hardline immigration agenda, it could serve to break the taboo throughout the European Union, which has long been dominated by open borders advocates who have attempted to impose so-called cordon sanitaire firewalls against nationalist-populist parties that advocate for stemming the tide of foreigners into the continent.