Republicans are betting their path to victory in 2026 runs through MAGA. Democrats are still figuring out how to win.
Two-thirds of the way through primary season, results from dozens of hotly contested battlegrounds across the country reveal a Republican Party that remains fully captured by President Donald Trump, even in swing districts that have at times rejected his brand, and a Democratic Party that is still consumed by factional infighting over how to win.
The implications are huge: If Republicans can win even competitive seats with MAGA candidates, that can further entrench the populist far right’s hold on the party. But if they suffer sweeping losses, that could bolster the more moderate GOP wing’s push for a return to power.
Democrats, meanwhile, will have plenty to study in November as they search for clues to winning back the White House in 2028. They’ve nominated an array of candidates, from far-left progressives to traditional centrists.
“The proof is going to be in the pudding,” said Larry Ceisler, a Democratic-aligned Pennsylvania-based public affairs executive. “Can these people win competitive general elections? And that’s going to be a lesson that’s going to go into ‘28.”
Republican voters have rallied behind candidates who closely align themselves with Trump and the MAGA brand, from Rep. Mike Collins and billionaire Rick Jackson in Georgia, to Bobby Charles and Marty O’Donnell in Nevada’s 3rd District. Trump-endorsed candidates have largely won their primaries this year, with a few high-profile exceptions in Iowa, Georgia and South Carolina, where Trump ended up endorsing both Republicans in the gubernatorial runoff at the last minute.
Democrats are being pulled by competing visions for their party’s future. For Texas Senate, Democrats chose buttoned-up James Talarico, but for Maine Senate they picked scandal-plagued Graham Platner. For New York’s 17th District on Tuesday, Democrats nominated no-nonsense and establishment-aligned veteran Cait Conley, but in California’s 22nd District, voters bucked party leadership and chose a firebrand progressive in Randy Villegas.
The results could turn Trump into a lame duck the last two years of his term, test the power of his brand a decade after he first ascended, and set in motion the direction of both parties ahead of the next presidential election.
Republicans bet on MAGA
The question of whether MAGA can win in battlegrounds has dogged the GOP in recent years, with loyalists like Kari Lake losing key races in 2022 and down-ballot Republicans trailing Trump in 2024.
They’re not changing tack.
Even as the president’s popularity sags, driven by dissatisfaction with the economy, his aggressive deportations and an unpopular war in Iran, the Republican base voters who drive the primaries are continuing to nominate MAGA candidates, not moderates.
That bucks conventional wisdom, which holds that a general election victory, especially in competitive races, requires assembling a broader coalition — one where Trump’s endorsement may not always help. A recent POLITICO Poll found that receiving Trump’s backing provoked a stronger negative reaction from voters who are opposed to the president than a positive one from those who support him, making it a net negative for a hypothetical candidate.
That is a dynamic Republican candidates will need to navigate in the months ahead — a particularly delicate balancing act for those who embraced the president’s agenda during the primary, but now must try to win over a more diverse segment of the electorate.
In Georgia, the Trump-backed Collins prevailed in last week’s GOP Senate runoff after leaning into his MAGA credentials. Now, he transitions to a match-up against incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, where appealing to a broader coalition of voters could prove equally as important as energizing the Republican base.
MAGA-aligned candidates also triumphed in Maine, with Charles gunning for the governor’s mansion and former Republican Gov. Paul LePage seeking to flip moderate Democrat Rep. Jared Golden’s now-open House seat. And in Nevada’s 2nd District, Trump-endorsed McDonnell, who just recently came under fire for hosting a Nazi on his podcast, is trying to pick off Democratic Rep. Susie Lee — one of the Republican Party’s top targets.
Even candidates who didn’t gain the president’s endorsement have ridden his brand to victory. Jackson won the GOP nomination for Georgia governor over a Trump-backed candidate, vowing to be “Trump’s favorite governor” and touting his support for the president’s agenda.
Still, Jason Roe, a Michigan-based GOP strategist, said MAGA is “baked into the Republican brand at this point,” so there’s “very little risk” for candidates to embrace Trump during a primary before pivoting to the general election.
The Democratic party throws everything at the wall
Democrats have one point of unity: They’re messaging against the party in power.
Most of their candidates push back against Trump and argue they would do a far better job addressing the nation’s cost of living, repeatedly the top issue for voters, than Republicans have.
But the party’s clashes over identity and charged issues like Israel and the war in Gaza have been on full display across some of the most-high profile matchups.
Voters “are looking for, ‘Hey, who is the right candidate that can actually win and represent me best in where I live?’” said Andres Ramirez, a Nevada-based Democratic consultant. “Where progressives can do well, they’re going to do well, where moderates can do well, they’re going to do well, and the full spectrum in between.”
Progressives have seen a slate of victories, including Villegas in California’s 22nd District and Matt Dunlap in Maine’s 2nd District. And Platner, despite being mired in controversy, crushed Maine Gov. Janet Mills even before the primary officially took place. All three defeated establishment choices backed by Democrats’ official campaign arms, a sign the party lacks the kind of total control that Trump enjoys over the GOP.
But moderates haven’t been far behind, with veterans like Conley winning in New York and Rebecca Bennett in New Jersey’s 7th District. In some of this year’s top battlegrounds, establishment-backed candidates have advanced, including Aaron Ford in Nevada and Josh Turek in Iowa.
Then there’s the faceoff next week in Colorado between Manny Rutinel, a progressive, and establishment-backed Shannon Bird and the brutal showdown later this summer in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, where progressive Abdul El-Sayed is leading two more moderate challengers, Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow.
The midterms will help give the party clues about what kind of Democrats are best poised to win ahead of 2028 — but it has also turbocharged an ideological civil war between the different wings of the party, especially as progressives have gained ground in both deep-blue and battleground districts.
Jesse Ferguson, a longtime Democratic strategist, said that in some of the nation’s swingiest districts, “the most electable candidates” are largely prevailing.
“There will be lots of debate about winning primaries in places like NYC and what that means for 2028, but the most important races — the ones in the swing districts — are being won by the candidates who give us the best chance to win the majority in 2026,” said Ferguson. “That’s what matters.”