La France Insoumise leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon is on course to reach the second round of voting in next year’s presidential election against Marine Le Pen after surpassing the Macronist establishment, a poll has found.
The 75-year-old socialist, who often draws comparison to other septuagenarian socialist firebrands in the West like Bernie Sanders in the United States or Jeremy Corbyn in the United Kingdom, appears set to be the main contender representing the left as French voters head to the polls in seven months to replace outgoing President Emmanuel Macron.
According to a survey from Ipsos-BVA, Mélenchon would reach the second round of voting against National Rally leader Marine Le Pen in four of six scenarios of potential fields of candidates, earning between 15.5 and 17 per cent of the vote, Le Journal du Dimanche reported.
Both Le Pen and Mélenchon appear to be beneficiaries of a growing desire to try something new, with the survey also finding that 71 per cent of French people want “real social and political change”, compared to 51 per cent during the previous 2022 election.
Conversely, former Prime Minister and current Mayor of Le Havre, Édouard Philippe, who the French legacy media have widely tipped as the liberal camp’s best chance at defeating Le Pen, only reached the second round of voting in two of six scenarios studied.
Philippe, who served as President Macron’s PM from 2017 to 2020, only reached the second round when he was the only representative of the centrist bloc, without figures such as fellow former PM Gabriel Attal splitting the vote.
While the poll appeared to show momentum for Mélenchon, the far-left LFI (France in Rebellion) party leader still trails Le Pen significantly. Indeed, although the Ipsos poll did not study second round voting preference, all others that have done so have seen Le Pen outperform her far-left rival by large margins.
A separate survey conducted last month by Elabe found that Mélenchon would be Le Pen’s easiest opponent, predicting the the National Rally would prevail in the second round against her socialist counterpart by a margin on 69.5 to 30.5 per cent. A second round against more moderate candidates would tighten the race considerably, with Le Pen only besting Attal by 57 to 43 per cent and Philippe by 52.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent.
Given the large disparity and the peculiarities of the pro-establishment two-round election system enacted in the wake of World War II, it is conceivable that tactical voting agreements could be forged in order to prevent Mélenchon from reaching the second round.
Should this occur, it remains to be seen if Mélenchon’s loyal support base would come back into the fold and rally behind a more centrist candidate to keep Le Pen from taking power.
However, with seven months to go before voters head to the polls, it is not certain that the LFI leader will remain in pole position against Le Pen, particularly given his propensity to court controversy.
Indeed, the mass migration advocate, who has publicly states his support for the so-called Great Replacement, is currently facing a complaint at the Paris judicial court over alleged anti-white racism for comments made earlier this year in which the Moroccan-born Spanish-Sicilian migrant suggested that French culture only achieved its heights due to Muslim influence and that that the modern French act “smart, all white, all ugly as you are”.