Oil industry analysts on Friday noted a sharp decline in Iran’s offers of crude oil to Chinese buyers after the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports was reimposed on July 13.
Reuters on Friday noted that Iran’s offers of shipments for September and October are down from July and August sales and there have been no sightings of an actual Iranian supertanker crossing the Strait of Hormuz since July.
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It is possible that some ships might have slipped through by switching off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders and “running dark.” U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Wednesday that American forces have “redirected 65 commercial vessels, disabled 3 and boarded 2 to ensure compliance” since the blockade was reimposed.
Iran had a large quantity of oil stored outside the blockade zone before July and that inventory has dwindled from 105 million barrels to 80 million, according to ship tracking service Kpler.
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Some 30 million to 40 million barrels of that total are currently moving through Asian waters, so the Iranians probably have less than 40 million barrels in floating storage left to sell. Iran’s biggest oil customer and largest trading partner, China, was importing about 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil before the war.
Another sign of scarcity is that supplies of Iranian light crude that were formally offered at a steep discount to buyers a week ago are now commanding a premium of around $2 per barrel. As the supply of Iranian oil heads toward zero, buyers are willing to pay a little more to get what remains.
Kpler senior analyst Muyu Xu predicted oil buyers “could face virtually no new Iranian supplies available for late-September delivery onwards since no laden Iranian tankers have so far managed to break through the U.S. blockade.”
The oil market has seen signs of China’s independent “teapot” refineries, small operations that were heavily dependent on cheap Iranian oil to turn a profit, turning to alternative suppliers in Brazil and Iraq.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian grumbled on Friday that “sanctions and pressure tactics are not the solution” to the Iran crisis.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian’s Regular Press Conference on August 21, 2026. (Chinese Foreign Ministry)
The left-wing newspaper New York Times (NYT) reported Friday that China is ostensibly confident that President Donald Trump’s “economic D-Day” campaign against Iran is a sign of “weakness” and desperation – but behind closed doors, the Chinese Communist Party is checking its oil reserves and planning retaliatory action to break America’s grip on Iran’s ports, possibly including a cut to America’s critical mineral supplies.
Trump’s announcement on Wednesday included a threat to impose “tremendous economic consequences” against “any country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to hold a press conference on Monday to fill in the details of this plan. The NYT was skeptical that Trump could “pressure China to cut its business ties with Iran,” but thought his most likely strategy would involve choking off the remaining flow of Iranian oil to China’s teapot refineries, which are otherwise insulated from most U.S. sanctions.
“The United States could try to step up interdiction of the ships that carry Iranian oil to Chinese refineries, or it could increase its scrutiny of banks that help Iran launder the Chinese yuan that it receives from the teapots as payment,” the NYT suggested.