SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) can’t seem to catch a break. On Thursday, the company aborted the second launch attempt of its upgraded Starship rocket moments after ignition, hours after the stock had slid 3% to about $131 — an all-time low for its brief public life, and below the $135 price at which it went public in June, in an initial public offering (IPO) that raised $85.7 billion.
But a scrubbed launch is a passing headline. The heavier weight on the stock is a calendar item. SpaceX’s IPO lockup releases begin in August, and the biggest early tranche could put more shares on the market than the IPO itself did.
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Here’s how the supply wave works, and what it means for anyone eyeing the beaten-down stock.
A supply wave, on a schedule
SpaceX‘s June 12 IPO put less than 5% of the company’s roughly 13.2 billion shares into public hands. Nearly everything else is locked up, for now.
The earnings-linked release could come first. Under the lockup terms in SpaceX’s IPO prospectus, up to 911.5 million shares become sellable on the second full trading day after the company’s first earnings report as a public company (a report the company hasn’t formally scheduled yet). That single tranche alone is bigger than the entire IPO, and it is worth more than $115 billion at the current share price.
Another 455.8 million shares would be released alongside them if the stock closes at least 30% above its IPO price, or $175.50, on five of the 10 trading days running into the report. At about $131 as of this writing, that trigger is nowhere in sight.
And the calendar keeps going. Smaller slices, each about 7% of the shares subject to the standard lockup, unlock roughly every two to three weeks from late August through late October. Another 28% becomes sellable after the company’s third-quarter report, and the standard lockup winds down entirely in early December. Elon Musk’s own shares stay locked until next June.
What the supply wave means for buyers
Lockup expirations matter most when a stock is already weak, because they add supply exactly when demand is shaky. SpaceX fits the description. Shares have fallen about 42% from their post-IPO peak of $225.64.
And the fundamentals give potential sellers reasons. The company’s Starlink-driven connectivity segment is a standout. It generated $11.4 billion of revenue and $4.4 billion of operating income in 2025, with segment operating income more than doubling year over year, and it added $3.3 billion of revenue in the first quarter of 2026. But the company’s newly acquired artificial intelligence (AI) segment lost $6.4 billion from operations in 2025, and it posted a $2.5 billion operating loss in the first quarter of 2026 alone, and the space segment itself lost money in both periods, too.