North Carolina Republicans have a message for Washington: The cavalry needs to come.
Their Senate nominee, former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley, is lagging far behind Roy Cooper, the prized Democratic recruit and popular former governor, in polls and cash.
Republicans believe Whatley still has time to turn around those steep deficits — but only if the national GOP opens its deep pockets sooner than later, according to interviews with nearly a dozen North Carolina Republicans and national strategists.
A massive infusion of cash ahead of the typical late summer and early fall spending spree, they say, would combat Whatley’s biggest problem: a lack of name ID.
In a typical midterm year, the state’s Senate race would be a marquee battle. But the Cooper-Whatley matchup has been drowned out by other more high-profile contests in Texas, Maine and Michigan, leaving some in North Carolina anxious for more money and ways to push the national party publicly further into the fight.
“He has an uphill climb,” said Tuesday Sauer, chair of the Bertie County GOP. “Even though he was the RNC chair, a lot of people who aren’t politically involved really don’t know who Michael Whatley is.”
So far the race has been sleepy, focused on bread-and-butter affordability issues that are defining contests across the country. But the low-key nature of the race is hiding just how critical North Carolina is in November. The state, which President Donald Trump carried three times, is a must-win for Democrats frothing at the possibility of flipping the Senate. And in Cooper, Democrats have found a strong candidate to give them a chance at their first Senate win in the state since 2008, thanks to his status as a household name from a political career spanning four decades.
Some Republicans think Whatley, a former state party chair and close Trump ally who is a first-time candidate in his own right, is running a generic campaign that won’t cut it given his blue-chip opponent and the tough national environment.
“Michael Whatley has to give them a reason to talk about North Carolina, and so far he hasn’t. That’s the challenge,” said one GOP state official, granted anonymity to speak freely about the race. “There’s a lot of other races right now that give solid headlines, and right now the headline in North Carolina is: ‘Republican Party plays possum.’”
Cooper raised $13.8 million to Whatley’s $5 million in the first quarter of the year, and the Democrat entered the second quarter with $18.5 million in cash on hand, while Whatley reported having more than $2.5 million in the bank. Some public polling shows Cooper with as much as a 14-point lead over Whatley.
“The strategy is simple. Remind North Carolinians that Roy Cooper is a pro-crime, pro-tax, career politician whose failed leadership made life less safe and less affordable,” Whatley campaign spokesperson DJ Griffin said in a statement. “The campaign is humming, our partners are aligned across the board, and every day from now until Election Day is about one thing: sending Roy Cooper into retirement.”
Republicans plan to continue hammering Cooper on two major issues: crime and pandemic restrictions. While serving as North Carolina’s top executive during the height of the pandemic, as the virus ripped through prisons, Cooper reached a settlement with civil rights groups to release about 3,500 inmates to reduce overcrowding and health risks. A number of those inmates went on to commit new crimes — and Republicans blame Cooper for being responsible.
Cooper’s team argues that Whatley holds blame for pushing for the prisoners to be released during the pandemic.
“Whatley and his allies have been caught lying time and again, but the truth is Roy Cooper spent his career locking up criminals while Whatley pushed for prisoners to be released during Covid,” said Cooper campaign spokesperson Kate Smart, in a statement.
The race will reveal how fresh those Covid-19 memories are in the minds of voters. Republicans remain angry at Cooper for his pandemic restrictions, like shutting down churches and restricting access to visitors of patients in hospitals.
“At the first chance during Covid, Roy Cooper shut down all the churches, that’s major, while he let the bars remain open,” said state GOP Sen. Steve Jarvis. “It’s been a while, so I think that’s being missed right now. We need to get that back in the news.”
While antsy for the cash to arrive, many Republicans are optimistic that Whatley’s relationships within the party will come in handy.
The GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has committed $71 million to the race and so far has reserved more than $36 million in broadcast ads starting in early September, according to tracking service AdImpact. North Carolina, which contains several major media markets, is one of the more expensive states to run ads.
“If Dems think they have a layup in the only swing state that President Trump is 3-0, they’re out of their minds,” said a national Republican strategist working on the race, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the landscape.
Other PACs, like Old North Action have also reserved a large chunk of ad space this fall. Americans For Prosperity has already doled out more than $8 million this spring, the bulk of which was spent on digital and streaming ads for Whatley. North Carolina Republicans are also optimistic that Whatley will be a major beneficiary of the recent Supreme Court decision allowing political parties to freely coordinate with candidates and spend without constraint, given his stint as RNC chair. Republicans have a massive cash edge over Democrats: The RNC has more than $125 million in the bank, while the DNC has more debt than cash on hand, $18.3 million to $14.8 million.
“The fall of coordinated spending limits means the NRSC can discuss spending decisions directly with our candidates and their campaigns,” said Joanna Rodriguez, communications director at the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “The era of raising the curtain on strategy and press and the Democrats we’re looking to defeat is over.”
“President Trump and Republicans are united behind Michael Whatley, who will be North Carolina’s champion in the US Senate,” said RNC spokesperson Emma Hall, in a statement.
Cooper has his own national money in the pipeline, but so far it doesn’t match the Republican side. WinSenate PAC, affiliated with Schumer-backed Senate Majority PAC, has promised more than $27 million in fall reservations for him.
“The reality of all of it is that between Republican super PACs and the RNC, they just have way more money,” said Morgan Jackson, a longtime North Carolina Democratic strategist and a Cooper adviser. “There’s no white horse coming, the way that Republicans are waiting on their savior to come.”
Still, Republicans’ biggest asset — Trump’s PAC MAGA Inc. — remains tightlipped about its own plans to distribute its massive $350 million warchest.
“That money needs to be brought to North Carolina, so the people of North Carolina can be reminded of what a crappy Governor Roy Cooper was,” said GOP state Sen. Amy Galey.
“Getting his name, face recognition in 100 counties is tough, especially in North Carolina, with just plain geographics of going from Manteo to Murphy,” said GOP state Rep. Donnie Loftis, of Whatley. “It comes down to funding. That money drives your message, and if you don’t have the money, you can’t get your message out there.”
North Carolina Democrats have their own concerns about lagging investments from the national party. Some fear that Cooper’s strong current standing in the race at this juncture will cause party leaders to overlook the state in favor of other shiny objects — like Texas, where Democrat James Talarico appears competitive with Republican Ken Paxton.
“I believe in the Coach K theory,” said Democratic House Minority Leader Robert Rieves, referring to former Duke basketball coaching legend Mike Krzyzewski. “It doesn’t matter how far you are ahead, you keep playing just as hard as you did the first minute.”
Erin Doherty contributed reporting.