In July, as the war in Iran continued to sputter and economic pressure grew on the American people from higher gasoline prices, Donald Trump, out of the blue, announced a new 50% tariff threat on Canadian goods.
Politically, it seems Trump was looking for an easy win, but he got another setup for defeat.
The Trump tariffs are very unpopular in the United States. The tariffs, along with the Iran war, are viewed as drivers of inflation.
The Mike Pence-founded conservative think tank Advancing American Freedom wrote in a recent policy memo about Trump’s tariffs:
American families, not foreign countries, are bearing the burdens for the administration’s tariff policies. Congress must reclaim its power to ensure there is “no taxation without representation.”
These are not the words used to describe a popular policy.
Trump is starting a trade war with Canada from a position of ultimate political weakness.
David Frum summed up the Trump administration’s one thought on Canada:
The Trump administration has one big idea about Canada: The U.S. is larger, stronger, and richer than Canada, so Canada must sooner or later surrender to Trump’s demands. That one big idea is wrong.
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Yes, Trump can hurt Canada more than Canada can hurt Trump. That part of Trump’s thinking is true. But wars are not decided only by the question Who can inflict more pain? Wars are also decided by the question Who can endure more pain? Trump’s failure to accept this truth is why he lost the Iran war—and why he is losing his trade wars.
Trump has set himself up for another loss, and one look at how Canada is reacting to this trade war shows why.