Topline
Teenage birth rates in the U.S. fell to a record low in 2022, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Thursday, as overall birth rates resumed a years-long downward trend after a brief reprieve in 2021.
U.S. birth rates have been below the replacement rate for years.
Key Facts
An estimated 3,661,220 babies were born across the U.S. in 2022, according to provisional data gathered from more than 99% of birth certificates issued that year.
The figure represents a modest drop of around 3,000 fewer births than reported in 2021, the CDC’s report said.
Given the small change and the fact that the data for 2022 is provisional, the report’s authors said they consider the country’s birth rate to be “essentially unchanged” from the year before.
The flat birth rate suggests the rebound in births following the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021—the first annual increase in nearly a decade and still down from pre-pandemic numbers—was transient.
The estimated birth rate among teens ages 15 to 19 years old fell to 13.5 babies per 1,000 Americans in 2022, the CDC report said, down 3% from the year before and a record low for the U.S.
Conversely, birth rates for people in their late 30s and and early 40s increased in 2022, in line with long-standing upward trends of delaying parenthood from before the Covid pandemic.
What To Watch For
The U.S.’ fertility rate for 2022 sits well below the level needed for the current generation to replace itself. Birth rates have consistently fallen beneath that threshold, termed the replacement rate, since 2007, the CDC said, and have generally been below it since 1971. This figure concerns many policymakers, scientists and officials and many countries have been trying out ways to encourage people to have more kids. A birth rate below the replacement rate signals some major demographic changes on the horizon, particularly slowing growth, an aging population and an economy that one day may struggle to find enough workers to fill key jobs and pay taxes.
Big Number
2.1. That’s the replacement rate, meaning each woman would, on average, need to have 2.1 children for a generation to exactly replace itself. In 2022, the U.S.’ fertility rate was around 1.7 children per woman.
Further Reading
Asia is spending big to battle low birth rates – will it work? (BBC)
How to prevent the Great People Shortage (Insider)