TikTok’s operation in the United States has become a lightning rod for debates on national security, political strategy, and global tech policy. According to a looming January deadline under bipartisan legislation signed by U.S. President Joe Biden earlier this year, the social media app’s Chinese parent company ByteDance will be forced to sell TikTok or have it be removed from U.S. app stores. However, following the final outcome of the recent U.S. presidential election with former President Donald Trump as the victor, more questions arise regarding its ability to potentially survive via different means. TikTok’s fate in the U.S. could hinge on legal maneuvers, strategic partnerships, or Trump’s own political ambitions.
Once branded a national security threat by Trump, the Chinese-owned app now finds itself in a position to potentially benefit from his embrace of TikTok as a campaign tool. During his first term, Trump declared TikTok a national emergency, citing fears that its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, could share user data with Beijing. His 2020 executive order sought to ban the app, but legal challenges stalled its implementation. TikTok fought the ban in U.S. courts and won. And then the app was pressured into partnering with Oracle.
Fast forward to the 2024 presidential election, and Trump, during his candidacy, made TikTok a centerpiece of his digital outreach, amassing millions of followers. He also voiced support for the app’s continued availability. Some also speculate his rivalry with Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg is as much a driving factor of Trump’s about-face on TikTok as his desire to appeal to younger voters.
TikTok’s survival strategies will likely involve a mix of legal and political maneuvering. What are some potential avenues for its survival?
Option 1: Trump Could Rescue the App
In one scenario, Trump could instruct the Justice Department not to enforce the law passed earlier this year requiring TikTok be sold or face a ban.
Alternatively, Trump could use his presidential authority to declare that TikTok has complied with the law, “whether it’s true or not,” according to Alan Rozenshtein, an associate law professor at the University of Minnesota and former national security adviser to the Justice Department.
TikTok has reportedly been preparing for a potential intervention by Trump. Senior TikTok executives have reportedly relaxed certain content rules to appeal to conservatives. TikTok’s CEO Chew Shou Zi also reportedly reached out to Elon Musk for advice on U.S.-related matters ranging from potential technology policy to the incoming administration. Musk was recently appointed by Trump, along with Vivek Ramaswamy, to head what he’s calling the “Department of Government Efficiency”(DOGE) – an acronym that is an apparent wink to the dog-themed cryptocurrency.
Democratic senators recently called for the Pentagon and Department of Justice to investigate any Elon Musk contact with Putin and other top Russians, though no calls for investigation related to the TikTok CEO have yet been made.
Option 2: A Legal Defense
Although less likely, TikTok could also save itself through winning its legal challenge over the legislation. TikTok argues that a U.S. ban would violate Americans’ First Amendment rights, claiming the government lacks sufficient national security justification to override access to free speech.
U.S. officials, however, fear the platform’s Chinese ownership could enable the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to influence public opinion or collect user data. While no evidence of misuse involving the U.S. has been publicly disclosed, some evidence of spying related to Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protestors in 2018 did come to light last year, and these concerns continue to drive bipartisan calls for action.
Recent developments have added urgency to the situation. A federal appeals court is expected to decide by December 6 whether to uphold a law requiring ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese parent company, to divest its U.S. assets by January 19, 2025, or face a ban.
During a September court hearing, judges appeared unconvinced that TikTok’s free speech claims outweigh the government’s national security arguments. If TikTok loses the case, it could appeal to the Supreme Court. However, it is likely that courts will prioritize national security concerns, as they have in past cases involving foreign-owned entities. With this consideration, the government’s case is strong and it is arguable whether the Supreme Court would intervene to block a ban.
Option 3: A Mixed Solution
TikTok’s experience in Indonesia offers a precedent for overcoming government opposition through strategic adaptation – perhaps the most probable outcome in the United States.
Last year the Indonesian government suspended foreign online shopping apps, including TikTok’s popular TikTok Shop feature. But within months, the platform merged with a local e-commerce company, transforming its status from a foreign entity to a domestic one. This move allowed TikTok to resume operations while addressing regulatory concerns.
Although the U.S. situation involves different stakes and issues – primarily national security rather than economic protectionism – this example demonstrates TikTok’s ability to modify its operations to meet government demands. A similar “halfway measure” in the U.S. might involve expanding its partnership with Oracle, the software company with ties to the Trump administration. In June, TikTok explained it was building on its existing partnership with Oracle through implementing its new U.S. Data Security (USDS) initiative, incorporating independent security inspectors to oversee data protection and ensure compliance with stringent security measures in the United States. Further collaboration in this direction could enable TikTok to localize data storage and management.
Such a compromise could provide an alternative to a full ban or forced divestment, balancing national security concerns with TikTok’s business continuity in the United States. Whether this approach would satisfy policymakers or the courts remains uncertain, but it reflects TikTok’s potential avenues to adapt operationally and in localization to meet challenging regulatory environments.
While U.S. officials zero in on national security threats, TikTok’s fate also involves the creator economy and U.S. public opinion. The app has become an integral part of the United States’ $250 billion creator industry, empowering small businesses and individual entrepreneurs to reach global audiences. Public support for a TikTok ban is declining, with only 32 percent of U.S. adults now in favor, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted between July 15 and August 4, 2024. This marks a drop from 38 percent in late 2023 and 50 percent in March 2023, reflecting growing skepticism about the likelihood of a ban. And most Americans doubt a ban will come to fruition.
A suspension of TikTok would not only disrupt its ecosystem but also establish a significant precedent for how the United States manages foreign-owned tech platforms. This could in turn have potential ramifications for U.S. technology abroad
Ultimately in the months ahead, the stakes for TikTok will rise. The platform’s survival will hinge on its ability to secure legal wins, build political alliances, or adapt structurally to evolving demands. And support from Trump suggests favorable political windfall for the app and its parent company is not out of the question. As TikTok navigates these challenges, its fate will shape the future of the China-U.S. technology relations and serve as a test of how security concerns are balanced with fostering innovation in the digital era.