The Chinese yuan has weakened this year to near the lowest level since October, and many mainland citizens are rushing to Hong Kong for safety in higher-yielding bank deposits, insurance and investment products and the US currency.
Shi from Beijing was at the Bank of China (Hong Kong) branch in the city’s tourist hotspot, Tsim Sha Tsui, at 7.30am on Friday to open a bank account. He had decided to queue there as online appointments in other branches were already fully booked. As the 9am opening time approached, more than 30 people had made a beeline for the door.
“I plan to buy insurance policies in Hong Kong for my children,” said Shi, who only wanted to be identified by his surname. “I’m also considering buying some US and Hong Kong dollars because of the recent depreciation of the yuan and rising interest rates in Hong Kong.”
Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.
In the same queue, Chen from Suzhou in eastern Jiangsu province said he was looking to buy an insurance policy to diversify his investments. “You should not put all assets in one basket, that is why I came here.”
China’s economic health worsened in June and July, with trade, inflation and lending declining while demand at home and abroad shrank. The country is facing a confidence crisis as its piecemeal approach to reviving growth disappointed investors, pressuring its currency.
The yuan has lost 5.4 per cent of its value against the US dollar this year and 7 per cent over the past 12 months. The offshore rate plunged to a nine-month low of 7.3451 per US dollar on Thursday, according to Reuters, while the onshore yuan hit the lowest level since November at 7.3008 per dollar.
Foreign investors have taken US$7 billion out of the onshore stock market this month, Goldman Sachs said. The Wall Street bank forecasts the yuan will weaken to 7.2 per dollar by the end of 2024, from 6.98 per dollar at end-2023, according to reports to clients this week.
Pedestrians walk past the logo for HSBC outside a local branch bank in Hong Kong in August 2021. Photo: AFP alt=Pedestrians walk past the logo for HSBC outside a local branch bank in Hong Kong in August 2021. Photo: AFP>
Commercial banks in Hong Kong like HSBC are dangling lucrative incentives to attract more customer deposits, given that the cost of borrowing between lenders in the interbank market has surged. Others have offered Sunday banking to accommodate mainland customers.
HSBC offers up to 10 per cent rates on deposits for new high-net-worth customers, while other rival lenders are offering 4 per cent to 8 per cent on fresh deposits. Banks in mainland China currently pay about 1.25 per cent to 1.65 per cent annually on similar time deposit accounts.
Sales of new life insurance policies in Hong Kong to mainland Chinese visitors jumped 28-fold to HK$9.61 billion (US$1.23 billion) in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to data published by the Insurance Authority.
“More mainland customers will come to Hong Kong to exchange their yuan into Hong Kong dollar or US dollar deposits, or buy investment products in these currencies as a hedge,” said Jasper Lo, an independent currency analyst. “Investors can enjoy higher interest rates offered by banks in Hong Kong and potential currency gains. It is a good diversification strategy.”
Jasper Lo, an independent foreign exchange analyst, says more mainlanders will seek to hedge against yuan weakness. Photo: Dickson Lee alt=Jasper Lo, an independent foreign exchange analyst, says more mainlanders will seek to hedge against yuan weakness. Photo: Dickson Lee>
Under China’s capital controls, mainland residents are limited to transferring US$50,000 outside the country annually, according to Horizons, a consultancy. Overseas withdrawals at ATM machines are limited to 100,000 yuan per person per year. Local and foreign travellers can carry 20,000 yuan of cash in and out of China, while higher amounts would require more documentations, it said.
Lo believes there’s room for the yuan to depreciate to 7.50 yuan per dollar in the medium term. However, the Chinese currency is unlikely to reach a “panic level” of 7.80 per dollar. The last time the yuan reached parity with the Hong Kong dollar was in 2007, before the global financial crisis.
“Beijing is surely sensitive to [yuan] volatility after a couple of months of relatively fast depreciation,” Nomura economists including Lu Ting said. “Beijing fears that a sustained depreciation will trigger even larger capital outflows, which would impair domestic consumption and investment.”
Property prices in tier-one cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen are declining, due in part to those high-net-worth individuals who try to sell their homes there and take the money offshore, they said in a report on Friday.
“These efforts have been successful,” a BEA spokesman said. “Notably, the intake of new-to-bank cross-boundary customers in the first half is higher than pre-Covid-19 levels.”
The number of new accounts opened by Bank of China (Hong Kong)’s cross-border clients rose by five times from a year earlier in the January-to-April period. It was also 44 per cent higher than the same period in 2019.
In the Greater Bay Area, new accounts opened by clients at Standard Chartered between January and June have surpassed the total in 2022, the bank said. At HSBC, new accounts by non-residents in the second quarter were double the level in the same period 2019, it said.
New accounts for mainland Chinese customers at OCBC Hong Kong have risen 12 times in the first half of this year, versus the same period in 2022. They seek wealth diversification, access to international markets, and foreign exchange opportunities, a bank spokesman said.
DBS Bank (Hong Kong), a unit of Singapore’s biggest lender, has seen an average 60 per cent monthly increase in new account opening this year, compared with pre-pandemic levels, said Amy Kwan, executive director of the consumer banking group.
“Mainland Chinese individuals who frequently travel to Hong Kong for personal or business purposes may find it convenient to have a local bank account,” she said. “It can facilitate daily banking needs, such as cash withdrawals, currency exchange, and paying their children’s overseas education and tuition fees.”
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP’s Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2023 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copyright (c) 2023. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.