2023 Emmys Lead Actor Comedy Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Apple TV+

Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 5, 2023): Martin Short’s performance is the secret sauce that brings the chemistry of the acting trifecta together. In Hulu’s mystery comedy, he plays Oliver Putnam, a flamboyant and eccentric Broadway director with a proclivity for the theatrics, something the TV Academy felt was still worthy after skimping out on his co-star Steve Martin. Short’s larger-than-life presence and magnetic charm could make him a dark horse to nab his first acting statuette without the fear of vote-splitting. Plus, he’s never won an acting Emmy (how is that possible?)

In the freshman FX series, Jeremy Allen White emerges as one of the most exciting talents in the game with his role as John, a young man grappling with the aftermath of a tragic loss and struggles with addiction. White has won every televised award thus far, constantly being rewarded for his haunting portrayal. Oh, and by the way, it’s funny? Will the already-aired second season’s far more dramatic tone hurt his winning chances?

In the Apple TV+ comedy series, Jason Sudeikis portrays the titular character, the affable and optimistic coach hired to lead the struggling English soccer team, which has brought two consecutive statuettes. Sudeikis’ ability to balance humor and heart has connected with audiences and TV Academy members. Will it be a three-peat? With 21 noms for the show, it’s hard to argue otherwise.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.

Jason Segel’s challenging role as Dr. Benjamin Harper, a renowned psychiatrist struggling with his unresolved traumas following the death of his wife, is a captivating portrayal that brought him his first (and deserved) nom. Raw vulnerability wrapped in his nuanced performance breaks your heart in the Apple TV+ series, alongside his nominated co-star Jessica Williams and the criminally snubbed Harrison Ford. While the nom may be the reward, considering how “Shrinking” performed overall, season two can’t come soon enough.

Bill Hader’s epic portrayal of Barry Berkman, the hitman-turned-aspiring actor, made his final bow in the acclaimed HBO dark comedy. Winning two statuettes for the first two seasons, Hader’s ability to effortlessly transition between comedy and drama has always been his greatest strength, showing the complexities of Barry’s internal struggles. Perhaps the Television Academy will want to give him one more trip to the stage.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

Jeremy Allen White — “The Bear” (FX)
Episode submission: “Braciole”
Jason Sudeikis — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Episode submission: “So Long, Farewell”
Martin Short — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Episode submission: “The Tell”
Jason Segel — “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Episode submission: “Imposter Syndrome”
Bill Hader — “Barry” (HBO)
Episode submission: “you’re charming”

All Eligible Performers (Alphabetized by Network)**

John Goodman — “The Conners” (ABC)
Sean Giambrone — “The Goldbergs” (ABC)
Topher Grace — “Home Economics” (ABC)
Elisha Williams — “The Wonder Years” (ABC)
Jean Elie — “Send Help” (Allblk)
Bob Odenkirk — “Lucky Hank” (AMC)
Enrique Arrison — “Acapulco” (Apple TV+)
Chris O’Dowd — “The Big Door Prize” (Apple TV+)
Billy Crudup — “Hello Tomorrow!” (Apple TV+)
Rob McElenney — “Mythic Quest” (Apple TV+)
Keegan-Michael Key — “Schmigadoon!” (Apple TV+)
Jason Segel — “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Jason Sudeikis — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Billy Gardell — “Bob Hearts Abishola” (CBS)
Utkarsh Ambudkar — “Ghosts” (CBS)
Cedric the Entertainer — “The Neighborhood” (CBS)
Skylar Astin — “So Help Me Todd” (CBS)
Steve Howey — “True Lies” (CBS)
Iain Armitage — “Young Sheldon” (CBS)
Ben Wang — “American Born Chinese” (Disney+)
Joel McHale — “Animal Control” (Fox)
Marcus Scribner — “Grown-ish” (Freeform)
Ronald Gladden — “Jury Duty” (Freevee)
Garrett Dillahunt — “Sprung” (Freevee)
Donald Glover — “Atlanta” (FX)
Dave Burd — “Dave” (FX)
Keegan-Michael Key — “Reboot” (FX)
D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai — “Reservation Dogs” (FX)
Jeremy Allen White — “The Bear” (FX)
Matt Berry — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
Kayvan Novak — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
Garret Dillahunt — “Sprung” (Freevee)
Hugh Laurie — “Avenue 5” (HBO)
Bill Hader — “Barry” (HBO)
Julio Torres — “Los Espookys” (HBO)
Bernardo Velasco — “Los Espookys” (HBO)
Drew Tarver — “The Other Two” (HBO)
Terence Nance — “Random Acts of Flyness” (HBO)
Nathan Fielder — “The Rehearsal” (HBO)
Bashir Salahuddin — “South Side” (HBO)
Michael Cimino — “Love, Victor” (Hulu)
Steve Martin — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Martin Short — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Ramy Youssef — “Ramy” (Hulu)
Keegan -Michael Key — “Reboot” (Hulu)
Nicholas Hoult — “The Great” (Hulu)
Chris Estrada — “This Fool” (Hulu)
Delroy Lindo — “Unprisoned” (Hulu)
Carlos Valdes — “Up Here” (Hulu)
George Lopez — “Lopez vs. Lopez” (NBC)
Joseph Lee Anderson — “Young Rock” (NBC)
Ralph Macchio — “Cobra Kai” (Netflix)
William Zabka — “Cobra Kai” (Netflix)
Lucas Bravo — “Emily in Paris” (Netflix)
Arnold Schwarzenegger — “Fubar” (Netflix)
Mohammed Amer — “Mo” (Netflix)
Kurtwood Smith — “That ’90s Show” (Netflix)
Rob Lowe — “Unstable” (Netflix)
Neil Patrick Harris — “Uncoupled” (Netflix)
Mike Epps — “The Upshaws” (Netflix)
Sylvester Stallone — “Tulsa King” (Paramount+)
Pete Davidson — “Bupkis” (Peacock)
John Larroquette — “Night Court” (Peacock)
Adam Devine — “Pitch Perfect: Bumper in Berlin” (Peacock)
William Jackson Harper — “The Resort” (Peacock)
Ed Helms — “Rutherford Falls” (Peacock)
Christoph Waltz — “The Consultant” (Prime Video)
James Corden — “Mammals” (Prime Video)
Stephen Merchant — “The Outlaws” (Prime Video)
Christopher Walken — “The Outlaws” (Prime Video)
Ignacio Diaz-Silverio — “Primo” (Prime Video)
Hosea Chanchez — “The Game” (Starz)
Adam Scott — “Party Down” (Starz)
Alan Tudyk — “Resident Alien” (Syfy)

** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.

2022 category winner: Jason Sudeikis as Ted Lasso from “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) – Season 2

Emmy Awards Predictions Categories

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.

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