Midterm elections are decided by the popularity of the president and the state of the economy. The vast majority of presidents see their party lose midterm elections because of motivated opposition, unmotivated supporters, and voter anger/dissatisfaction.
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Never has an incumbent Speaker of the House gone before the media and suggested that they were going to lose the election. Part of the job of a Speaker is to be pushing sunshine and rainbows until the bitter end, because the fastest way to lose an election is to announce in advance that you think you’re going to lose the election.
Speaker Mike Johnson went on Fox News and while Fox was tough on him, there was some concern.
First, Johnson tried to brush off voter concerns about the economy:
Now we put, in this Congress, we put into place all the economic conditions to let the economy take off like a rocket, and beginning in the first quarter of this year, that’s what was happening, and then we got into the conflict with Iran. Now that’s gonna be settling out soon. That will help gas prices and grocery prices stay down to planet Earth, because the transport cost and all that related to fuel and, and the price of oil and gas.
That’s the big headwind we have right now, but we have done what we said. We fulfilled our promises.
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At no point under the current Republican leadership has the economy been taking off. What Republicans and Trump did harmed the economy, but Johnson’s delusions got worse.