ANCHORAGE — Alaska Republicans have railed for years against ranked-choice voting. Now some worry it could cost them in a critical Senate race.
GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan is facing not only well-known former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in the four-way general-election field, but a same-name challenger who Republicans think could siphon votes from him in the close contest.
Some GOP operatives fear the senator will lose first-choice votes to retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan Jr. — and that supporters of his longshot rival might not rank the incumbent at all in the state’s unusual election system where voters can pick backup options that get counted if no candidate clears 50% of the initial vote. Two recent polls that simulated ranked-choice tabulations showed Peltola as the victor.
Art Hackney, a Sullivan ally who runs a super PAC boosting the senator, said Dan J. Sullivan is “going to get a percent of the vote” and warned it could be “potentially” be “significant in terms of impacting” the result of the race.
“Sullivan can win … but it makes it a heck of a lot harder,” added a Republican operative working on other Alaska races. “It’s what the race is going to come down to: If he loses, it’ll for sure be because of that. And if he wins, it’ll be in spite of that.”
Republicans have for years bemoaned the system that allows voters to rank their preference and eliminates candidates until one reaches a majority as “costly” and “confusing,” and argue it has undercut their party. Top Republicans like outgoing GOP Gov. Mike Dunleavy and President Donald Trump have urged voters to repeal the system via a ballot measure this fall after a previous effort failed two years ago.
“Even if he gets a percent or 2% or 3% percent with the phony ranked choice stuff, you never know what they’re going to do with it,” Trump said of Dan J. Sullivan in a rally in Wasilla last week, adding that it “could be the difference.”
It’s happened before: Peltola benefited in her House win from a split GOP field, while Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) warded off a Trump-backed challenger in 2022 partly because of ranked-choice voting. Alaska Republicans are also fretting about the governor’s race this year, where three GOP candidates are competing, urging voters to “rank the red.”
Dan J. Sullivan, Heikes and Peltola’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
The similarly named Sullivans are separated on the ballot by their middle initials and party affiliation (the incumbent is listed as a Republican, the challenger without a party).
But the senator and his allies aren’t taking any chances.
They’re employing several of the tactics Murkowski used during her successful 2010 write-in campaign, including giving out rubber wristbands branded with the senator’s name and party affiliation, and airing a radio jingle with the NRSC.
“Dan S. is your No. 1,” the jingle goes. “If he’s not, rank him second, don’t throw your vote away. Dan S., Daniel, Gerry — just don’t rank Mary.”
“Dan S. Sullivan has two opponents in this race: Democrat Mary Peltola, and the ranked choice system she and her allies have deceptively manipulated to her advantage,” said Nate Adams, a spokesperson for the senator. “But our campaign is confident that Alaskans aren’t confused. They know the real Dan, and we’re making sure every voter can find him: ballot facsimiles on every mailer, voters reached at the door and on the phone, and even a jingle.”
Those pushing to keep ranked-choice voting in Alaska argue the system helps mitigate the so-called spoiler effect. The group behind this year’s repeal measure said in an email that it’s a nonpartisan effort focused solely on eliminating the system.
Outside GOP groups boosting Sullivan like Americans for Prosperity Action and Club for Growth Action have been urging voters at doors and via mailers to rank the incumbent first, a slightly different approach than Sullivan’s campaign. “Make Republican Incumbent DAN S. SULLIVAN your 1ST CHOICE and ONLY CHOICE,” read one Club for Growth Action mailer seen by POLITICO, a slightly different approach than Sullivan’s campaign.
“In a tight election, it doesn’t take a ton of people to get confused to possibly change the trajectory and the outcome,” said Kevin Greene, senior adviser for AFP Action in Alaska.
A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro.