Few states have been hit as hard by Trump’s tariffs and trade war with Canada as Michigan. Republicans thought that they might have a chance at victory when Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic Senate nomination, but the anchor that is Trump appears to be dragging down Mike Rogers.
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A new poll conducted by GBAO for the Senate Majority PAC (D) found:
Trump’s job approval stands at 37 – 61 percent approve/disapprove, down from 39 – 58 percent in our August survey. A majority of Michigan voters now strongly disapprove of the job he is doing (53 percent), and they dislike him personally, with 57 percent rating him unfavorably and just 34 percent favorably.
• El-Sayed leads Rogers by 4 points, 48 – 44 percent. Democratic-leaning voters are highly engaged in the race, and El-Sayed’s lead is larger among the voters most likely to turn out. Among those who say they will “definitely” vote in the election, El-Sayed leads by 7 points (51 – 44 percent), and among those who rate their motivation to vote as “10” out of 10, he leads by 10 points (54 – 44 percent).
• Voters see El-Sayed, not Rogers, as someone who will fight for them. When asked which candidate each phrase better describes, Michigan voters choose El-Sayed over Rogers on key attributes including “will fight to lower costs” (48 – 38 percent), “will fight for people like you” (47 – 40 percent), “will bring the right kind of change” (47 – 40 percent), and “will take on corruption” (46 – 39 percent).
• Despite Republican attacks on El-Sayed, voters are more concerned that Rogers won’t stand up to Trump. Regardless of which candidate they support, 51 percent of voters say they are more concerned that “Mike Rogers won’t stand up to Trump,” compared to 38 percent who are more concerned that “Abdul El-Sayed is too risky for the economy.”
The fact that the more engaged voters are Democrats, and Democrats are more committed to turning out and voting in Michigan, is bad news for Rogers.
Some of these Senate races, like in Iowa and Texas, are dead heats that are within a point, so a four-point lead in Michigan is decent.
Donald Trump is sinking Republicans; even decent Republican candidates like Mike Rogers and Ashley Hinson, who don’t have the baggage of a Ken Paxton in Texas, are being dragged down by Trump.
El-Sayed’s lead could grow, given what is happening to Michigan’s economy and the damage Trump has done.
A Michigan race that Republicans thought they could flip is looking likely to stay in Democratic hands.
How do you feel about El-Sayed? Share your thoughts in the comments below.