The anti-mass migration Alternative for Germany appears set for a major victory on Sunday, with the party securing a commanding first-place finish in the Saxony-Anhalt state elections.
According to exit poll forecasts from Infratest Dimap for public broadcaster ARD, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has won an overwhelming victory at a projected 44.5 per cent of the vote, Die Welt reported.
This would mark the best-ever result for the nationalist party since its inception and more than double the support it won in the 2021 elections in the former East German state.
This is on pace to be more than double the support of their nearest rival, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which is projected to secure only 18.5 per cent of the vote, down from 37.1 per cent in 2021.
Meanwhile, the exit polling predicts that three other parties will surpass the five per cent threshold needed to be awarded seats in the state parliament.
This would include Die Linke (The Left), the direct descendant of the Socialist Unity Party (SED), the communist party that ruled East Germany, which is projected to win 9.5 per cent.
The Greens at 9 per cent, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) at 8 per cent, and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) at 5 per cent are all also currently predicted to enter the Saxony-Anhalt parliament.
This could prove damaging to the AfD’s prospects of taking the reins of power in the state and could potentially clear the way for a minority government, as the breakdown in seat allocation would likely see the AfD fall short of an absolute majority.
Due to the supposedly conservative CDU’s long-standing cordon-sanitaire firewall policy against working with the AfD, it is unlikely that the establishment party would enter into a coalition with populist upstarts.
The lead candidate for the AfD in the state elections, Ulrich Siegmund, praised his party’s victory as “historic” and extended an offer to work with the CDU, saying: “As a democrat, I will always extend my hand to all forces that will help us achieve a political turnaround.”
However, should the CDU refuse, as they are likely to do, the governing party could seek to form a minority coalition with the left-wing Social Democrats — as they have done at the national level — with the far-left Greens, and the tacit support of the radical Die Linke socialists.
The current leader of the state, CDU Minister-President Sven Schulze, congratulated the AfD on their victory, but did not comment on the prospect of a potential coalition.
“I think it’s clear that we would all have wished for a better result in every respect,” Schulze said. “We, as the CDU, will also have to deal with this result.”
“Some say this would be a black day for Saxony-Anhalt. I say: This is democracy,” he added.
Regardless of future coalition wrangling, the AfD’s overwhelming victory was hailed by fellow populists across Europe as an important step towards the dethroning of the open-borders establishment that has dominated politics across the continent for decades.
Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said that the win was a “resounding success that highlights the strong demand for change, security, and jobs. In the face of those on the left who stoked fears and catastrophic scenarios.”
“Fear? Terror? Danger? No, it’s called DEMOCRACY. Another Europe is possible.”
Former French presidential candidate Eric Zemmour remarked: “Voters will be blamed. The real culprits are those who, for half a century, treated as a crime what peoples felt as an obvious truth: the desire to remain oneself.
“The cordon sanitaire has never protected anyone. It has only delayed the hour of truth. That hour has come. And it will toll everywhere.”