Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said on Thursday that the United States can maintain its blockade of Iran “indefinitely,” while economists said the Iranian economy is rapidly approaching the point of “severe collapse” under the pressure.
“Indefinitely the United States Navy can maintain a blockade like that because we’ll rotate ships in and out, as we have, and we’ll continue to,” Hegseth told reporters Thursday.
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The U.S. Navy said on Thursday that the carrier USS George Washington is on its way to the Middle East from Vietnam and is currently in the Strait of Malacca between the Pacific and Indian oceans.
The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that the USS George Washington will replace USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been deployed for over 240 days. The Lincoln has reportedly suffered personnel, supply, and mechanical problems from its long deployment, although Hegseth dismissed those reports as “completely misrepresented” on Thursday.
“We make sure every ship, every crew, every captain has everything we can provide them at every single moment. Some deployments are longer than others, and I have more respect and gratitude for those sailors than anybody. What they do in those high seas in those austere conditions with less port calls — it’s incredible,” he said.
Trump said in a Truth Social post Wednesday that America “has total control over the Strait of Hormuz” and “I think we will keep it.”
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“Our naval blockade is being called, by everyone, ‘A WALL OF STEEL,’ and there is nothing Iran can do about it,” he wrote. “They have no Navy, they have no Air Force, their remaining soldiers are unpaid, the IRGC is decimated and fleeing, and their ‘Leadership’ is uncertain at best. They have No Money – their country is ‘shot.’”
“All they have is FAKE NEWS and 300% INFLATION, and getting worse!” he added.
Radio Free Europe (RFE) interviewed some Iranians on Thursday who said that even life in the capital of Tehran is becoming unbearable, with sky-high consumer prices and chronic shortages of goods.
“As things disappear from the dining table, fruit goes first, then dairy products, then anything considered non-essential. Ultimately, everything we buy is only essentials, but even then, nothing is affordable,” said a woman in Tehran who spoke anonymously, fearing reprisals from the regime.
“Planning for tomorrow no longer feels possible. Saving money is like trying to hold water in a sieve: its value keeps slipping away,” she said.
Another source in Tehran said the price of eggs and potatoes is skyrocketing week by week, and bread costs twice as much as it did a year ago.
“Don’t even get me started on fruit — it’s extremely expensive. We simply can’t afford it. We run out of money before the end of the month,” the second source said.
London-based economic analyst Masoumeh Taherkhani told RFE that Iran’s economy “was already in serious trouble” before the war – as demonstrated by the January uprising that Iran could only suppress by murdering thousands of its own people – and is now “heading toward a period of severe stagflation, and possibly even hyperinflation.”
“Within less than a year, the economy could be approaching a severe collapse, which could mark a major turning point,” he predicted.
Forbes analysts said on Friday that the U.S. economy was likely to remain fairly stable through most scenarios for the outcome of the conflict – even if Iran ends up controlling the Strait of Hormuz and extorting “fees” from international shipping.
This estimate was based, in part, on the enthusiastic efforts of other Middle Eastern oil-producing nations to develop other routes around the Strait of Hormuz – a process that would likely accelerate if Iran attempts to impose high tolls on traffic.
“Strait of Hormuz tolls would not increase the world price of oil, and this fact is central to the economic forecast. Tolls would reduce net proceeds for the non-Iranian oil producers, but not raise world price,” Forbes said.
Other countries might not fare as well, including the United Kingdom, which could see its encouraging GDP growth slow to only 0.3 percent next year unless the Hormuz crisis is resolved.
The London-based National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) said on Thursday that the regime in Tehran is not dealing well with its “crisis of political and economic paralysis,” pointing to a trial run of gas price controls that collapsed under a wave of “public hostility” in a matter of hours.
NCRI said Iran is having a great deal of difficulty exporting oil or importing refined fuels, and its own refineries are primitive and poorly maintained, so a nation floating on a sea of oil finds itself facing a fuel crisis.
Iranian sources said the daily demand for fuel is already outpacing production by 14 million liters, so motorists are facing strict fuel rationing, and “public anger has reached a boiling point” in sweltering cities that cannot afford air conditioning.
Like RFE’s analyst, NCRI anticipated “a historic macroeconomic collapse,” possibly on an even more aggressive timetable. President Trump’s estimate of “300% inflation” has not arrived just yet, but the national average is now 96 percent, with some provinces suffering 115 percent to 120 percent rates. Public demonstrations against the regime are beginning to spin up again, and so far the regime has not murdered the demonstrators.
“Hemmed in by foreign blockades, industrial bankruptcy, and a populace no longer willing to absorb economic shocks, Tehran’s clerical elite is rapidly running out of room to maneuver,” NCRI concluded.