Kevin Warsh is leading only his second meeting as Federal Reserve Chair, and this one is proving far less predictable than his first.
The Federal Open Market Committee‘s two-day July meeting began Tuesday and will conclude Wednesday, July 29, with an interest rate decision followed by a press conference.
Unlike Warsh’s first meeting in June, when the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady was widely expected, this time markets are genuinely split on what happens next.
Related: Bitcoin traders brace for Fed’s rate call and inflation this week
Why this decision is so uncertain
Two conflicting forces are pulling the Fed in opposite directions. June’s inflation report showed prices cooling to 3.5% from 4.2% in May, giving the central bank room to hold rates steady.
But renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with the breakdown of an earlier ceasefire, have pushed oil prices higher again, reviving concerns that energy costs could feed into broader inflation and force the Fed’s hand toward a hike instead.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in a 70.6% probability that the Fed holds rates steady in the 350 to 375 basis point range, versus a 29.4% probability of a 25 basis point hike.
Those odds have shifted meaningfully over the past month; a month ago, the market gave a hold just a 70.1% probability versus 29.9% for a hike, showing the uncertainty has persisted rather than resolved.
Warsh is running the Fed differently
Though only in his second meeting as chair, Warsh has already begun reshaping how the Fed operates. He has signaled he intends to provide significantly less forward guidance than his predecessors, a shift that has visibly unsettled parts of the market that had grown used to clearer signals ahead of rate decisions.
He has also stood up several new task forces to examine potential changes to how the Fed conducts its business going forward.
Trending on TheStreet Roundtable:
Data from Santiment Intelligence, an onchain intelligence platform that also tracks social sentiment across crypto, shows how directly that uncertainty is showing up in trader conversation.
According to a July 28 post from Santiment on X:
“The July FOMC meeting runs July 28-29, with Kevin Warsh leading a crucial interest rate decision that will impact crypto markets. Traders are focused on whether the Fed holds steady again or surprises traders with a hike.”