CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten highlighted a “nightmare” scenario on Sunday for Democrats in November as he spelled trouble for the party after its big redistricting loss to Republicans in Virginia. (Watch his analysis below.)
Enten argued that the “drastic turn” in partisan redistricting wars in recent weeks has made it “fairly safe to say that Republicans will, in fact, win” those wars in 2026.
“But what exactly does that mean? Does that mean it’s a nightmare for Democrats? Well, sort of, but not really,” Enten said.
Under the current lines for congressional districts, Democrats would have to win the national House popular vote by less than 1 percentage point to take control of the lower chamber, according to Enten.
But, he explained, the party would need to win the national vote by a “significantly wider margin” — anywhere from 3 to 4 points — after factoring in all the decisions to implement new maps via redistricting.
“It is not anything like 10 points or anything like that. It just makes the road significantly harder for Democrats,” he said.
Enten then turned to “good news” for Democrats: The party holds an average lead of about 6 points in national House vote polls, a “significantly wider” margin than the 3 to 4 points needed to win under redistricting.
That leaves the party with a “much smaller margin for error,” however, as the “real margin of error… historically speaking” is around plus or minus 7 points, according to Enten.
“So what that essentially means is, yes, Democrats would be favored going into the elections today… [but] they would not be anywhere near as big of a favorite as they were just, let’s say, a few weeks ago,” he said.
The segment arrived just days after the Virginia Supreme Court pulled the plug on a voter-approved redistricting referendum that would’ve helped Democrats win four additional U.S. House seats.
In an interview with MS NOW’s Ali Velshi, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) declared that Democrats would still be able to take control of the lower chamber. And Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.) told NewsNation on Sunday that “all options” are on the table for Democrats in her state following the ruling.