Donald Trump is facing one of his biggest tests of the midterms — and it’s of his own making.
The president has spent a significant amount of time and money trying to help Sen. Darline Graham defeat Rep. Ralph Norman in Tuesday’s snap GOP Senate primary. He’s done more for Graham than he has for the battleground Republicans whose general election fights will determine control of Congress: Not only did he push her to run for a full term, he also held a rare in-person rally for her and tapped into his MAGA Inc. warchest during the final days of the race.
If, after lending all that support, Graham fails, it would be Trump’s most embarrassing loss of the cycle. A win, however, would let him flex his ability to power an unknown political figure to office.
“If Darline does come up short, it would be just a massive, massive embarrassment to the White House and to the president. Just an utter rejection,” said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and former Trump State Department appointee during his first term.
Tuesday’s runoff to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the November ballot won’t meaningfully affect the balance of power in Washington. What it will do is reveal the extent of Trump’s clout, because of just how much personal political capital he has expended in the race to convince voters to elect a virtual stranger.
“The fact that he came to the state on short notice to do a rally, and we haven’t seen that in a lot of endorsements, I think that sends a very strong message that he’s all in,” said Andrew Boucher, a GOP strategist and chair of South Carolina’s Charleston County Republican Party, who is neutral in the race.
Trump has framed the race as nothing less than a referendum on himself. Rallying with Graham in Myrtle Beach last week, the president told voters to “pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot.”
On Monday, a Federal Election Commission report revealed that Trump’s super PAC had spent $827,000 on text messages and phone calls for Graham. It’s one of the largest expenditures this cycle from MAGA Inc., and cash that Republicans in battlegrounds are anxiously awaiting for themselves.
One national Republican operative, who was granted anonymity to candidly discuss the president’s influence on the race, noted just how far Trump’s support has gotten Graham: “She wouldn’t even be in this place if she didn’t have [his support]. The outside help she’s had has kind of made this competitive.”
Before GOP Gov. Henry McMaster appointed her to serve out the remainder of her late brother’s term in July, Graham was a complete political novice. Graham has worked for the South Carolina Vocational Rehabilitation Department and has led the Commission for the Blind since 2019, but she had never held or even sought public office — a fact that her opponents have attacked her for repeatedly on the campaign trail, especially after she stumbled over a key foreign policy question on the debate stage earlier this month. Her clearest connection to electoral politics lay solely in being the late senator’s younger sister.
Trump’s past mistakes in South Carolina loom over the race. The Senate primary has echoes of the state’s governor’s contest earlier this summer, in which Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, a little-known Trump-backed candidate, fell to the more well-known Attorney General Alan Wilson. As public polling began to show Evette trailing significantly in the first days of that runoff, Trump issued a rare dual endorsement to include Wilson.
Evette’s defeat, coupled with a batch of uncharacteristic losses by Trump endorsees in GOP primaries in Georgia, Iowa, Minnesota, Wyoming and Michigan, has put all the more attention on Graham.
The power of his endorsement is on the president’s own mind, too. In a Sunday night post on Truth Social, Trump mused that his “Endorsements are stronger than ever,” pointing to splashy charts comparing his wins to his comparatively few defeats.
But in the same breath, he acknowledged that his power is not always absolute: “The few that lost were done out of loyalty. It was almost impossible for them to win but, I felt obligated to go with them because they were, in my opinion, good people!”
When asked for comment, a White House spokesperson pointed to specific remarks from Trump’s speech at Friday’s rally with Graham, including his acknowledgement that he urged her to jump in the primary.
“She’s never done it before, but she knows politics well,” Trump told supporters on Myrtle Beach. “She loves our military. She loves things that have to do with greatness for America.”
Graham’s foreign policy debate flub — in which she said “national security is not my thing” in response to a question of U.S. interests in Taiwan — revealed the pitfalls of running for office with no prior experience. Norman has taken advantage of that stumble by hammering her inexperience.
The closing stretch of the race has been characterized by Graham trying to tie herself to Trump and burnish her conservative credentials across the state. Norman has tried to shore up support in his Upstate stronghold and expand into the Low Country where former Gov. Mark Sanford — who endorsed his campaign late last week — dominated in the first round. Norman’s also taken to Fox News to bash Graham as an “unknown” and “propped-up candidate.”
Graham’s campaign hopes to consolidate support from Rep. Russell Fry’s (R-S.C.) district after he endorsed her campaign a few days into the runoff. Her closing ad of the race claims Norman “turned his back on Trump’s agenda” and is interspersed with footage of her on the rally stage alongside the president.
The GOP party establishment in South Carolina has fallen in line behind Graham.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) publicly backed her bid on the first day of the runoff, Evette got in line shortly thereafter and McMaster followed several days later.
Graham’s campaign has itself spent just over $1 million in ads since the outset of the race, but that spending is bolstered by at least three other outside groups — including Security is Strength PAC, Palmetto Action PAC, and American Mission PAC — who also supported her late brother’s primary bid earlier this year. Their spending has topped $6 million, according to AdImpact.
Norman has had his own outside help from a notable figure and longtime ally: Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and her aligned groups have spent more than $700,000 for Norman, including $200,000 on a supportive ad from her issue advocacy group, Stand for America.
But that’s still much lower compared with what Graham has received.
“Sen. Scott engaging in the race, the congressional delegation, all these portions of it. Congressman Fry engaging in the race is a big deal. You could almost say that’s the opposite of what you had in the governor’s race,” said a South Carolina-based Republican operative, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly and is staying neutral in the race.
Spokespeople for Graham and Norman did not respond to requests for comment.
Graham is still somewhat dogged by her high-profile debate stage mistake, though she’s tried to redirect the attention in interviews.
“You know what I’ve done in the last week? I’ve gone around this entire state talking to as many people as I possibly can. And you know how many of them brought up Taiwan and national security? Not one!” she said at a press conference in Columbia on Monday.
The late August runoff date could prove unpredictable for both candidates as they seek to drive out their supporters across the state. The twilight of South Carolina’s sticky, slow summer is in full effect: Most kids have returned to school, families across the state are packing their beach gear for one final getaway and the doldrums of summer are still in full force.
Several Republicans said that could mean a lower turnout — which could be a boon for a known-quantity candidate with a long history in local office, like Norman.
“A lot of the candidates that have defeated Trump-endorsed folks across the map this cycle, they’re well-known entities,” said the national GOP operative. “It’s hard to overcome some of the basics of politics, where name ID goes a long way. Familiarity with the candidate matters. Having a favorable view and someone who aligns with your values more matters, even if there’s a Trump endorsement.”
Samuel Benson contributed to this report.