NATO is aware of a secret Russian plan to undermine the alliance by staging a minor and short-lived invasion of Poland — one of the highest defence spending members — in a bid to neuter Western support for Ukraine, a report claims.
Russia could launch a limited attack on a major member of NATO calculated not to spiral into a full war but intended to persuade the alliance it is under so much peril it needs to divert weapons presently being donated to Ukraine back to their own defence, a report in Polish media claims. Writing in Poland’s Onet and Britain’s The Daily Telegraph — media in two of NATO’s most Russia-hawk members — Polish journalist Witold Jurasz claims that Russia wants to top off its misadventure in Ukraine by prodding the NATO bear on its own turf.
Allegedly, the United States has already officially, behind closed doors, warned Poland “several” times about these “new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO’s eastern flank”.
The report claims five highly-placed sources for this information, including someone inside the office of the Polish President, pro-Trump conservative Karol Nawrocki, a “leadership” figure inside the Polish secret services, a Polish Ministry of Defence insider, and a NATO ambassador. None of these purported sources are named.
Nevertheless, the report states the purpose of this “limited-scale military provocation” is to push NATO nations — who presently fund Ukrainian weapons purchases or supply munitions out of their own stocks — into self-defence mode, where they feel unable to keep sending sophisticated weapons systems abroad.
Per the report, a limited Russian strike engineered for this purpose could mean a one-off drone strike on Polish power infrastructure or the “accidental” crash landing of a lost helicopter just inside Polish territory. The report stated:
…an armed provocation could involve Russian or Belarusian units crossing the Polish border. This could happen “by mistake” or, for example, to “rescue” the missing crew of a helicopter that landed in Poland due to a “navigation system failure.”
In this case, it is alleged Poland would be pressured not to open fire on Russian troops by the U.S. and they would withdraw to their own side of the border under a negotiation. It is stated the purpose of this limited incursion then withdrawal would be to undermine Poland’s sovereignty, but most importantly to stage a de facto demonstration that NATO is toothless, and demurred from opening fire as Russian or Russian-aligned troops crossed its eastern border.
Even if these extraordinary claims are based in fact and Russia is in fact just months away from throwing the dice on testing NATO, it is not at all clear whether Poland would blink first. While Warsaw has appeared to do little other than make noise over recent alleged Russian probing attacks on its territory, it remains one of the most hawkish alliance member states on the Russian threat, and is modernising and expanding its military at breakneck speed.
Poland is, proportionally, one of the highest-defence-spending NATO members and has been shopping worldwide to buy new military systems to equip itself at speed. Its fighter jets are frequently deployed to police Europe’s eastern flank against air incursions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and has previously shot down Russian drones over NATO airspace.