Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) said its supervised Full Self-Driving technology recorded 4.1 times fewer collisions than manually driven Tesla cars across the five European countries where it is currently permitted, Reuters reported on September 1, as the company steps up lobbying ahead of a European Union vote on wider deployment.
Tesla said the findings came from more than 100 million kilometers of driving data collected between April and August, during which FSD-equipped cars were involved in three highway collisions and nine on non-highway roads, compared with 137 and 490 respectively for manually driven vehicles. The Netherlands became the first European country to grant provisional FSD approval in April, and Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, and Lithuania have since followed suit ahead of the EU-wide vote. Tesla also published an open-source safety dashboard it says was already shared with EU regulators in April. Reuters has previously reported that Tesla presented European regulators with safety statistics that experts said relied on invalid comparisons and could give a misleading impression of the system’s performance; Tesla did not respond to detailed questions for that report.
Tesla (TSLA) Rolls Out Its Safety Numbers Ahead of a Make-or-Break EU Vote
Bull Case
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s broader sales recovery gives this push real timing. Second-quarter deliveries hit a record 480,126, up 25% year over year, and revenue reached $28.2 billion, up 26%. Trailing twelve-month revenue topped $100 billion for the first time. Europe’s sales decline also showed signs of easing this year. It means EU approval could arrive as Tesla rebuilds demand in the region.
FSD represents Tesla’s AI growth story closest to real monetization. Active paid FSD users grew from 950,000 a year ago to 1.48 million, and broader EU approval could open a major new market for this high-margin software revenue as investors look for proof that Tesla’s AI bets can generate cash.
Regulatory momentum is building since the Netherlands granted provisional approval in April, and Belgium, Denmark, Estonia and Lithuania followed with their own approvals. That sequence shows Tesla has gained regulatory traction across several European markets ahead of a potential EU-wide decision.
Tesla’s latest safety data could also solidify its case with regulators. The company analyzed more than 100 million kilometers of driving data across five European countries and reported 4.1 times fewer collisions with FSD engaged than with manually driven Tesla vehicles. If regulators accept the methodology, Tesla can use the data to strengthen public and regulatory confidence in the system.
Bear Case
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s safety-data credibility remains under scrutiny. Reuters previously reported that Tesla presented European regulators with safety statistics that experts said relied on invalid comparisons and could create a misleading impression of FSD’s safety performance. Tesla did not answer detailed questions about that report, leaving an unresolved credibility issue as the company promotes similar data ahead of the EU vote.
Tesla’s core profitability also faces real pressure. Operating income fell 57% in the second quarter even as deliveries and revenue reached records, while shrinking margins and lower regulatory-credit revenue weighed on results. Capital expenditures more than doubled to a record $5.8 billion, and free cash flow turned negative, increasing the financial pressure behind Tesla’s AI ambitions.
A lot rides on the European decision. Tesla’s premium valuation increasingly depends on FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus rather than vehicle sales alone, so a rejection or delay in Europe could weaken a central part of the investment thesis rather than simply hurt regional sales.
Tesla also trails established driverless robotaxi operators. Alphabet’s Waymo and Baidu’s Apollo Go have built more experience with fully driverless ride-hailing, while Tesla still requires human supervision for FSD and continues to expand its unsupervised Robotaxi service cautiously. EU approval of supervised FSD therefore would not eliminate Tesla’s competitive gap in fully autonomous transportation.
Tesla has also repeatedly projected faster European regulatory progress than it ultimately achieved. The company previously expected EU-wide approval within months, yet regulators continued to debate safety and technical concerns, including Sweden’s objections to FSD’s speed-offset feature. France has also started its own road tests to verify Tesla’s safety data before taking a position. These developments show that Tesla still faces a demanding regulatory process despite its recent progress.
Hedge Fund Data
Insider Monkey’s database shows Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) was held by 116 hedge funds in the second quarter of 2026, down from 123 in the first quarter, though total holdings value edged up to $23.79 billion from $23.09 billion. Rivian, a smaller EV rival also pursuing autonomous-driving ambitions, was held by 40 funds, down from 45, with holdings value nearly doubling to $1.72 billion from $898 million.
Tesla’s push for European FSD approval could unlock a major software opportunity as FSD adoption grows and vehicle sales recover. However, questions surrounding its safety data, weaker core profitability, heavy AI spending, and stronger competition in fully autonomous transportation create risks. Overall, EU approval could solidify Tesla’s AI-driven growth story, but investors still need to see FSD meet Europe’s regulatory standards and turn its growing use into sustainable profits.
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